[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Feb 10 10:30:48 AEDT 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.8    0227UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 144/98

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Feb             11 Feb             12 Feb
Activity     R2, chance R3      R1, chance R2      R1, chance R2      
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R1 level on UT day 09-Feb 
due to an M2.8 flare at 09/0227UT. There are currently nine numbered 
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4366 (N16W71, beta-gamma-delta) 
remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the 
solar disk and was responsible for the one M-class flare during 
the UT day. This region is beginning to rotate off the visible 
solar disk and its magnetic character is becoming hard to determine. 
All other regions appear either stable or in decay. Solar flare 
activity is expected to be at the R2 level, with a chance of 
R3 on 10-Feb. Activity is expected to be at the R1 level with 
a chance of R2 over 11-12 Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions 
were at the S0 level on 09-Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions 
are expected to be at the S0 level over 10-12 Feb, with a chance 
of S1 on 10-Feb due to AR4366. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
over the UT day. The solar wind speed decreased slightly over 
09-Feb, mostly ranging between 350 to 475 km/s . The wind speed 
is currently at around 410 km/s The interplanetary magnetic field 
strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 10 nT, with the North-South component 
(Bz) ranging between -8 and +8 nT over the UT day. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain near background levels over 
10-12 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: G0

Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21121212
      Cocos Island         2   11110101
      Darwin               6   22221212
      Townsville           4   22111211
      Learmonth            7   22222213
      Alice Springs        5   21121212
      Gingin               7   21122223
      Canberra             3   11111211
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   11222212
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     4   11213101
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson              18   44433323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3211 1123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Feb     5    G0
11 Feb     3    G0
12 Feb     3    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 09-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 10-12 Feb.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over 
the UT day 09-Feb. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 
10-12 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Feb    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      96
Feb      88
Mar      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 
8 February and is current for 9-11 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values 
on UT day 09-Feb. Sporadic E was visible around the Australian 
region during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values over 10-12 Feb. Sporadic E is possible 
during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    78500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au