[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 9 10:30:44 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 1118UT possible lower European
M1.7 1143UT possible lower European
M2.7 1353UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R1 level on UT day 08-Feb
with three M-class flares observed, the largest of which was
a M2.7 from AR4366 (N16W56, beta-gamma-delta) at 07/1353UT. There
are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region near N11E90. AR4366 exhibited
slight decay over the UT day however remains the largest and
most magnetically complex visible region. All other regions appear
either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to
be at R2, with a chance of R3 levels over 09-11 Feb. Solar radiation
storm conditions were at the S0 level on 08-Feb. Solar radiation
storm conditions are expected to be at the S0 level, with a chance
of S1 over 09-11 Feb as AR4366 lies in a geoeffective position.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed over the UT day. The solar
wind speed remained steady over 08-Feb, mostly ranging between
485 to 400 km/s. The wind speed is currently at around 410 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
9 nT, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -8
and +7 nT over the UT day. The solar wind may slightly increase
over 09-Feb with a possible enhancement due to high speed wind
stream effects from a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 09-10
Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Cocos Island 4 22111111
Darwin 7 32111123
Townsville 7 22212123
Learmonth 6 32111122
Alice Springs 4 22111112
Gingin 7 32111132
Canberra 6 22111123
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 22111122
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 23122112
Casey - --------
Mawson 20 34332245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 4333 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 12 G0
10 Feb 7 G0
11 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 08-Feb with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 conditions are expected on
09-11 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over
the UT day 08-Feb. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
09-11 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Feb 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values on UT day 08-Feb. Spread-F
was observed at Learmonth and Perth during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 15% over 09-11 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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