[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 8 10:30:46 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 160/114
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 07-Feb
with only C class flares observed. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4366 (N16W41,
beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest and most magnetically complex
visible region however was quiet over the last UT day with no
significant flare activity. Intermediate spots showed some slight
growth over the UT day. All other regions appear either stable
or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R2, with
a chance of R3 levels over 08-10 Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S0 level on 07-Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions
are expected to be at the S0 level, with a chance of S1 over
08-10 Feb as AR4366 lies in a geoeffective position. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed over the UT day. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased over 07-Feb, mostly ranging between 550 to 430 km/s.
The wind speed is currently at around 430 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 7 nT, with the North-South
component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +6 nT over the UT day.
The solar wind may slightly increase over 08 Feb with a possible
enhancement due to a glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 03-Feb combined with expected high speed wind stream effects
from a large coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 08-09 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 33322223
Cocos Island 6 22221222
Darwin 10 33222223
Townsville 11 33322223
Learmonth 9 32222223
Alice Springs 10 32322223
Gingin 10 32322223
Canberra 11 33322223
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 33322223
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 17 33443332
Casey - --------
Mawson 41 55542654
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 1223 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 15 G0
09 Feb 12 G0
10 Feb 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Feb. G1 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region at Mawson. G0 conditions are expected on 08-10 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over
the UT day 07-Feb. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
08-10 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on
5 February and is current for 6-8 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values.
Spread-F was observed at Niue and Townsville during local night
hours. Sporadic E was observed across the Australian region during
local night hours at Canberra and Perth. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15% over 08-10
Feb. Sporadic E is expected in the Australian region during local
night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 226000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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