[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Sat Feb 7 10:30:50 AEDT 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  R0

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 164/118

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     R2-R3              R2-R3              R2-R3
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 06-Feb 
with only C class flares observed. There are currently eight 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4366 (N16W27, 
beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest and most magnetically complex 
visible region however was quiet over the last UT day with no 
significant flare activity. Mid spots are becoming less complicated 
and only 1 delta spot remains and is simplifying. All other regions 
appear either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected 
to be at R2-R3 levels over 07-09 Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions 
were at the S0 level on 06-Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions 
are expected to be at the S0 level, with a chance of S1 over 
07-09 Feb as AR4366 lies in a geoeffective position. A slow CME 
visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 05/2324UT has been analyzed 
to present the chance of a glancing impact to Earth on 09-Feb 
at 1400UT +/- 10 hours. The solar wind speed gradually decreased 
over 06-Feb, mostly ranging between 500 to 650 km/s. The wind 
speed is currently at around 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 7 nT, with the North-South 
component (Bz) ranging between -6 and +7 nT over the UT day. 
The solar wind is expected to increase over 07 Feb with a possible 
enhancement due to a glancing impact from a CME first observed 
on 03-Feb combined with expected high speed wind stream effects 
from a large coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 08-09 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: G0

Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   22234432
      Cocos Island        10   22222432
      Darwin              12   22233333
      Townsville          13   22234333
      Learmonth           14   22234432
      Alice Springs       12   12234332
      Gingin              14   22234432
      Canberra            12   12234332
      Kennaook Cape Grim  15   12244432
      Hobart              11   12234---    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    31   12266533
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson              39   24434754

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              55   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             22   4553 3121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb    20    G0, chance of G1
08 Feb    14    G0
09 Feb    12    G0

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 5 February 
and is current for 5-7 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 06-Feb. G2 conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region with G3 conditions for Mawson, 
G0, chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 07-Feb 
due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 
03-Feb and G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 08-09 Feb.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over 
the UT day 06-Feb. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 
07-09 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Feb   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      96
Feb      88
Mar      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb   120    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 
5 February and is current for 6-8 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly enhanced by 20-35% 
above predicted monthly values during local day and night hours, 
with the strongest enhancements observed in the northern Australian 
region. Sporadic E was observed across the Australian region 
during local night hours at Canberra and Perth. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15% over 07-09 
Feb. Sporadic E is expected in the Australian region during local 
night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 554 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   222000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au