[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 6 10:30:45 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 0423UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0833UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1304UT possible lower European
M1.8 1513UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 1630UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.5 1741UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.2 1934UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 2217UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R1 level on UT day 05-Feb
due to 8 M-class flares. The largest flare was an M2.7 flare
at 05/0436UT and all other M-class flares were between M1.2 and
M2.2. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR4366 (N16W15, beta-gamma-delta) remains
the largest and most magnetically complex visible region and
was responsible for 6 of the notable flares in the UT day, including
the largest. One of its delta spots has simplified, however two
remain. AR4362 (S15W21, beta) showed minor spot development and
was responsible for three flares in the UT day, one in combination
with AR4366. AR4371 (S21E31, beta) also showed spot development
over the UT day. An unnumbered region has rotated onto the solar
disk at around N11E78, insufficient imagery available, currently,
for an accurate magnetic character determination. All other regions
appear either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected
to be at R2-R3 levels over 06-08 Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S0 level on 05-Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions
are expected to be at the S0 level, with a chance of S1 over
06-08 Feb as AR4366 rotates towards a geoeffective position.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed
on UT day 05-Feb. The solar wind speed increased over 05-Feb,
mostly ranging between 455 to 670 km/s . The wind speed is currently
at around 595 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) peaked at 19 nT, with the North-South component (Bz)
ranging between -17 and +16 nT over the UT day. The solar wind
is expected to remain elevated over 06-Feb, a further enhancement
is possible on 07-Feb due to a glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 03-Feb combined with possible high speed wind stream
effects from a large coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on 08-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 16 44433122
Cocos Island 9 33332111
Darwin 16 44433113
Townsville 17 44443112
Learmonth 18 45333223
Alice Springs 13 33433122
Gingin 17 54333222
Canberra 14 34433122
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 35443122
Hobart 20 45434122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 29 46535122
Casey - --------
Mawson 36 56653221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 1111 2434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 10 G0
07 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
08 Feb 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 5 February
and is current for 5-7 Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 05-Feb, with
a period of G1 conditions observed at Learmonth, Gingin, Kennaook
Cape Grim and Hobart. G2 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 06-Feb. G0
conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 07-Feb due to
a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 03-Feb
and G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 08-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over
the UT day 05-Feb. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
06-08 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on
5 February and is current for 6-8 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly enhanced by 20-30%
above predicted monthly values during local day hours, with the
strongest enhancements observed in the northern Australian region.
MUFs were near predicted monthly values during local night hours.
Sporadic E was observed across the Australian region during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to enhanced by 15% over 06-08 Feb. Sporadic E is expected in
the Australian region during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts
are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 70200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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