[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Feb 5 10:30:49 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 03/2250UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.4 03/2309UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 0110UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.1 0230UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.9 0239UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.1 0355UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8 0920UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.1 1012UT possible lower European
M1.5 1046UT possible lower European
X4.2 1213UT probable all European
M1.8 1534UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R3 level on UT day 04-Feb
due to an X4.2 flare at 04/1213UT. There were also 8 M-Class
flares observed on 03-Feb, the largest of which was an M4.9 flare
at 04/0239UT. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR4366 (N16W02, beta-gamma-delta)
is, by far, the largest and most magnetically complex visible
region. It was responsible for all 9 flares (at M and X-Class
levels) on 04-Feb and has shown some spot separation, with one
of two delta spots beginning to simplify. An unnumbered region
has developed on the solar disk at around N15E39 with alpha magnetic
classification. All other regions appear either stable or in
decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels
over 05-07 Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions were at the
S0 level on 04-Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions are expected
to be at the S0 level, with a chance of S1 over 05-07 Feb as
AR4366 rotates towards a geoeffective position. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed on UT day 04-Feb.
A slow, west directed CME visible from 03/2012UT has been analyzed
to present the chance of a glancing impact to Earth on 07-Feb
at 2000UT +/- 10 hours. This CME is possibly due to a filament
lift off. A weak shock in the solar wind was observed at 04/1422UT.
Prior to this shock the wind speed was steady at around 300-350
km/s before rising to around 480 km/s after the shock. The wind
speed is currently at around 480 km/s. This shock likely indicates
the early arrival of a CME first observed on 02-Feb. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 22 nT, with the North-South
component (Bz) ranging between -15 and +17 nT over the UT day.
The solar wind is expected to remain moderately elevated over
05-06 Feb. A further enhancement to solar wind conditions is
possible on 07-Feb due to an anticipated glancing impact from
a CME first observed on 03-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 11122423
Cocos Island 9 21122324
Darwin 10 11122424
Townsville 11 12122424
Learmonth 11 11122434
Alice Springs 9 11122423
Gingin 9 11122423
Canberra 7 11122323
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 11222423
Hobart 9 01222423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 00012422
Casey - --------
Mawson 15 22222543
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2211 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 20 G0-G1
06 Feb 10 G0
07 Feb 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 04-Feb, with a period
of G1 conditions observed at Darwin and Learmonth in the Australian
region and Mawson in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 05-Feb due to a recent CME impact.
G0 conditions are expected on 06-Feb and G0 conditions, with
a chance of G1 are expected on 07-Feb due to a possible glancing
impact from a CME first observed on 03-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over
the UT day 04-Feb. Mildly degraded conditions are possible on
05-Feb, particularly at high latitudes, due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 06-07 Feb.
Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on
2 February and is current for 3-5 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly enhanced by 15-30%
above predicted monthly values. The strongest enhancements were
observed during local night hours and in the northern Australian
region. Sporadic E was observed across the Australian region
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to enhanced by 15% over 05-07 Feb. Anticipated
geomagnetic activity on 05-Feb may mildly depress MUFs in the
southern Australian region on 05-06 Feb. Sporadic E is expected
in the Australian region during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 30700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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