[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Feb 4 10:30:48 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 02/2327UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.5 0149UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.7 0422UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.6 0555UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M7.2 0701UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M3.7 0745UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.4 1005UT possible lower European
M1.3 1100UT possible lower European
M1.3 1120UT possible lower European
X1.5 1408UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M7.2 1455UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.5 1805UT possible lower Pacific
M2.0 2250UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.4 2309UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R3 level on UT day 03-Feb
due to an X1.8 flare at 03/1408UT. There were also 13 M-Class
flares observed on 03-Feb, with the largest being two M7.2 flares
at 03/0701UT and 03/1456UT. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4366 (N16E11, beta-gamma-delta)
is, by far, the largest and most magnetically complex visible
region. It was responsible for all 14 flares (at M and X-Class
levels) on 03-Feb and has shown some spot separation, although
still retains two delta spots. All other regions appear either
stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at
R2-R3 levels over 04-06 Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S0 level on UT day 03-Feb. S0 conditions are expected
on 04-Feb, with a chance of S1 over 05-06 Feb as AR4366 rotates
towards a geoeffective position. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CME) were observed on UT day 03-Feb. The solar wind
speed was steady on 03-Feb, mostly ranging between 280 km/s and
335 km/s across the UT day and is currently near 300 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9
nT, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -4 and
+5 nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
near background levels on 04-Feb, a mild increase is expected
in the second half of 05-Feb due to an anticipated impact from
a CME first observed on 02-Feb. The wind speed is expected to
be mildly elevated on 06-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21110121
Cocos Island 2 21210010
Darwin 3 21110022
Townsville 3 21101121
Learmonth 3 21110121
Alice Springs 3 21100122
Gingin 3 20210121
Canberra 2 21000121
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22111120
Hobart 3 21111120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 01120210
Casey 13 34432220
Mawson 9 33212232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2312 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 4 G0
05 Feb 15 G0-G1
06 Feb 25 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 03-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 04-Feb. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
in the second half of 05-Feb and G1 conditions are expected on
06-Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed
on 02-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over
the UT day 03-Feb. Ionospheric conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal over 04-05 Feb. Degraded conditions are possible
on 06-Feb, particularly at high latitudes due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity on 05-06 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on
2 February and is current for 3-5 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
with enhancements of 15% observed in the northern Australian
region durling local daylight hours. Sporadic E was observed
in the south eastern Australian region during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 15% over 04-05 Feb. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values with mild depressions possible on 06-Feb, particularly
in the southern Australian region, due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity on 05-06 Feb. Sporadic E is expected in the south eastern
Australian region during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts
are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 28000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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