[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Feb 3 10:30:48 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X8.1 01/2357UT probable all West Pacific
X2.8 0036UT probable all West Pacific
M1.4 0654UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X1.6 0814UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M6.7 1124UT probable lower European
M1.1 1339UT possible lower European
M4.0 1501UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.9 2005UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity R2-R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R3 level on UT day 02-Feb
with a X2.8 and X1.6 flare observed at 02/0036UT and 02/0814UT
respectively from active region (AR) 4366 (N16E24, beta-gamma-delta).
This active region also produced an X8.1 flare observed at 01/2357UT
just prior the start of the 02-Feb UT day. Numerous M-class flares
were also observed over the 02-Feb UT day from this active region.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4366 has shown growth over the past 24 hours
and is the most notable and complex sunspot region on the solar
disk. AR4367 (N09E53, beta) has also exhibited slight growth
over the UT day. Two newly numbered regions AR4370 (S16E63, beta)
and AR4371 (S24E70, beta) have both recently rotated onto the
solar disk. All other regions appear stable or in decay. Solar
flare activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 03-Feb
and R2, with a chance of R3 levels over 04-05 Feb. Solar radiation
storm conditions were at the S0 level on UT day 02-Feb. S0 conditions
are expected over 03-05 Feb. A low velocity northeast directed
coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
from 02/0048UT. This CME is considered to be associated with
the X8.1 and X2.8 flares from AR4366. Initial modelling suggests
a possible glancing impact, with an estimated arrival at Earth
at 05/1300UT +/- 12 hours. No (other) Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. The solar wind speed was steady on 02-Feb, mostly
ranged between 330 km/s and 290 km/s across the UT day and is
currently near 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) peaked at 7 nT, with the North-South component (Bz)
ranging between -6 and +3 nT over the UT day. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near background levels over 03-05
Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 32111011
Cocos Island 3 22211000
Darwin 9 52111112
Townsville 5 31111112
Learmonth 10 52211112
Alice Springs 5 42110011
Gingin 5 32211011
Canberra 3 31110001
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 32111001
Hobart 3 31111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 12111001
Casey 12 33433112
Mawson 19 44423243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0121 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 4 G0
04 Feb 4 G0
05 Feb 15 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 02-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 03-04 Feb. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 05-Feb due to the arrival of a CME first observed
on 02-Feb. The CME is expected to arrive at 05/1300UT +/- 12
hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over
the UT day 02-Feb. Ionospheric conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal over 03-05 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on
2 February and is current for 2-4 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to 15-25% enhanced during the day on UT day 02-Feb. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15%
over 03-05 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 40600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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