[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 2 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0205UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0341UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.9 0420UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M6.6 1002UT probable lower European
X1.0 1233UT probable all European
M1.5 1548UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M5.1 1605UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1735UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.5 1758UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R3 level on UT day 01-Feb
with an X1.0 flare observed at 01/1233UT from active region (AR)
4366 (N16E38, beta-gamma-delta). Numerous M-class flares were
also observed over the UT day from this active region. There
are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR4366 has shown rapid spot development over the past 24
hours and is the most notable sunspot region on the solar disk.
AR4358 (N18W01, beta) has also exhibited slight growth over the
UT day. A newly numbered region AR4369 (S01E72, alpha) has recently
rotated onto the solar disk. All other regions appear stable
or in decay. Solar flare activity has increased as AR4366 continued
to develop and is expected to be at R2, with a chance of R3 levels
over 02-04 Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions were at the
S0 level on UT day 01-Feb. S0 conditions are expected over 02-04
Feb. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed over
the past 24 hours. A southwest directed farside CME is visible
in SOHO C2 imagery from 01/1224UT. This CME is not considered
geoeffective. The solar wind speed was in decline on 01-Feb,
mostly ranged between 390 km/s and 285 km/s across the UT day
and is currently near 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 6 nT, with the North-South component
(Bz) ranging between -5 and +2 nT over the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain near background levels over
02-04 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11112102
Cocos Island 1 11101100
Darwin 5 21112113
Townsville 4 11112112
Learmonth 5 22122102
Alice Springs 3 21002102
Gingin 4 12112211
Canberra 3 11102102
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11202102
Hobart 4 11212102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 01113201
Casey 12 24432212
Mawson 9 13322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2221 1021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 4 G0
03 Feb 4 G0
04 Feb 4 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 01-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 02-04 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over
the UT day 01-Feb. Ionospheric conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal over 02-04 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on
1 February and is current for 1-3 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced during the day on UT day 01-Feb. Enhancements
of 25-30% were observed during local night hours. Spread-F was
observed at Hobart and Brisbane over the UT day. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15% over 02-04
Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 95000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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