[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 1 10:30:47 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 31-Jan.
There are currently nine numbered and one unnumbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. Newly numbered region AR4366
(N16E53, beta-gamma-delta) has shown significant spot development
over the past 24 hours and is the most notable sunspot region
on the solar disk. An unnumbered region has recently rotated
onto the solar disk at around S02E80 with possible alpha magnetic
classification. All other regions appear stable or in decay.
Solar flare activity has increased slightly as AR4366 has developed
and is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 01-03 Feb. Solar radiation
storm conditions were at the S0 level on UT day 31-Jan, despite
mild enhancements in the >10 MeV proton flux as measured at GOES.
S0 conditions are expected over 01-03 Feb. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed over the past 24 hours.
A west directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from
31/0525UT. This event is concurrent with an eruption on the western
limb at the equator, visible in GOES SUVI and SDO imagery from
31/0454UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective. The solar
wind speed was in decline on 31-Jan, mostly ranged between 480
km/s and 380 km/s across the UT day and is currently near 385
km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked
at 4 nT, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between
-2 and +2 nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 01-03 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 12100011
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 3 12100022
Learmonth 2 22100011
Alice Springs 2 12100001
Gingin 2 21100010
Canberra 2 12100001
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22201001
Hobart 3 22201001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 21101000
Casey 12 44421111
Mawson 16 44211153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 4322 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 6 G0
02 Feb 4 G0
03 Feb 3 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-Jan. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 01-03 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly fair in the
first third of the UT day before recovering to normal conditions.
Ionospheric conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
01-03 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values during the day on UT
day 31-Jan. Enhancements of 15% were observed during local night
hours. Sporadic E was observed at Hobart, Canberra and Brisbane
over the UT day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to enhanced by 15% over 01-03 Feb. Further sporadic E
is possible in the south eastern Australian region. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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