[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 August 26 issued 2330 UT on 15 Aug 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Aug 16 09:30:48 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 15-Aug was at the R0
level, with several low level C-class flares observed. There
are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. Active Region (AR) 4506 (N11W32, beta-gamma) is the most
magnetically complex region on the disk and has exhibited spot
growth over the UT day. Region 4507 (N05W13, beta) has shown
growth in its trailer spots. Newly numbered AR 4512 (S24W13,
beta) recently appeared on the solar disk and has shown mild
growth. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
flare activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 16-18 Aug,
with a chance of R1 primarily due to the magnetic complexity
of region 4506. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 15-Aug. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 16-18 Aug. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Aug decreased,
ranging between 380 and 340 km/s, and is currently near 350 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5
to +4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background
levels over 16-18 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11001121
Cocos Island 2 11000120
Darwin 2 11001121
Townsville 3 12001121
Learmonth 2 21100120
Alice Springs 1 01000120
Gingin 2 21000121
Canberra 2 01001120
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11001221
Hobart 3 11001221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00011100
Casey 5 23111121
Mawson 12 12102245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 9 3233 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 6 G0
17 Aug 6 G0
18 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the planetary
and Australian regions on UT day 15-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 planetary geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 16-18 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 15-Aug were
mostly normal, with some degradations observed in southern hemisphere
regions in the first half of the UT day. HF radio propagation
conditions are expected to be normal over 16-18 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 75
Aug 64
Sep 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Aug were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 16-18 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 74200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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