[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 August 26 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Aug 17 09:30:38 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 16-Aug was at the R0
level, with several C-class flares observed, the largest of which
was a C8.2 flare at 16/1928UT produced by Active Region (AR)
4506 (N11W43, beta). There are currently three numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR 4507 (N05W26, beta-gamma) is the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has exhibited spot development
over the UT day. Region 4506 has also shown spot growth over
the 24-hour period. An unnumbered region recently appeared near
N10W53 (beta) and has shown spot growth. All other regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 17-19 Aug, primarily due to the magnetic
complexity of region 4507. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 16-Aug. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 17-19 Aug. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) have been observed. A west-directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 16/1948UT. This
CME is considered to be associated with the aforementioned C8.2
flare from AR 4506. Modelling indicates this CME does not contain
a geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Aug
decreased, ranging between 350 and 290 km/s, and is currently
near 290 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -5 to +4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at
background levels over 17-18 Aug. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase on 19-Aug due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a southern hemisphere coronal hole which is currently
crossing the central meridian.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 3 11210012
Learmonth 2 12200000
Alice Springs 2 11200001
Gingin 1 11200000
Canberra 1 11110001
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 01110000
Hobart 1 01110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 01320000
Casey 4 23210000
Mawson 9 23321004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1201 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 6 G0
18 Aug 6 G0
19 Aug 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian,
planetary and Antarctic regions on UT day 16-Aug. G0 planetary
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 17-18 Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 19-Aug due to coronal hole effects
from a southern hemisphere coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
19 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Aug were
mostly normal, with some degradations observed in northern hemisphere
regions. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal
over 17-18 Aug, then normal to fair on 19-Aug due to forecast
geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 75
Aug 64
Sep 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Aug were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Hobart and Townsville during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 17-19
Aug. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 87400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list