[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 August 26 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Aug 15 09:30:52 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 14-Aug was at the R0
level, with only low level C-class flares observed, the largest
of which was a C4.3 flare at 14/2155UT produced by Active Region
(AR) 4508 (N06E27, beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR 4507 (N04E07, beta) is
the largest region on the disk and has exhibited spot development
over the UT day. Region 4503 (S17W63, beta) has shown mild growth
in its trailing spot. Region 4506 (N12W10, beta) has shown mild
spot growth over the 24-hour period. All other regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at
the R0 level over 15-17 Aug, with a chance of R1 primarily due
to the recent growth in region 4507. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on UT day 14-Aug. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Aug. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. A filament
eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery centred near
S20E25 at 14/0329UT. A subsequent associated CME was observed
in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 14/0523UT. Modelling indicates
this low velocity CME does not contain a geoeffective component.
A narrow, southwest-directed CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery at 14/0724UT. This CME is considered to be associated
with a C4.1 flare from AR 4503. Modelling indicates this CME
is not Earth-directed. A northward CME observed at 14/1224UT
in LASCO C2 is considered a farside event and not geoeffective.
Similarly, a west-directed CME observed at 14/1800UT in LASCO
C2 imagery is also considered a farside event. The solar wind
speed on UT day 14-Aug decreased, ranging between 460 and 340
km/s, and is currently near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -7 to +3 nT. There is a chance of
a mild increase in the solar wind speed on 15-Aug due to coronal
hole effects. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels over 16-17 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22232221
Cocos Island 5 22122120
Darwin 8 23232221
Townsville 8 12233222
Learmonth 7 22232221
Alice Springs 7 22232211
Gingin 9 32232321
Canberra 7 21232221
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 21243321
Hobart 9 01243321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 18 11463311
Casey 8 33221131
Mawson 29 44533263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2211 112-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 12 G0
16 Aug 8 G0
17 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and planetary regions on UT day 14-Aug. G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 planetary geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 15-17 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Aug were
mostly normal, with some degradations observed in northern hemisphere
regions. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 15-17 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 75
Aug 64
Sep 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Aug were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Townsville during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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