[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 September 25 issued 2330 UT on 13 Sep 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Sep 14 09:30:50 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Sep was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk, however there are all either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is generally expected to be R0 with a chance for
R1 over 14-16 Sep.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
imagery on UT day 13-Sep.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 13-Sep.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 14-16 Sep.
The solar wind on UT day 13-Sep was at background levels.
The solar wind speed ranged from 334 to 382 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -4 nT. The solar
wind is expected to remain steady for the first half of UT day
14-Sep, then become enhanced once a large coronal hole connects
to Earth later in the day. The solar wind is then expected to
remain enhanced over 15-16 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11211101
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 4 21211102
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 4 21211201
Alice Springs 2 11211001
Gingin 3 11111201
Canberra 3 12221001
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12221101
Hobart 4 12221101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 6 11342000
Casey 4 22221100
Mawson 17 44322343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1333 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 13 G0-G1
15 Sep 18 G1-G2
16 Sep 15 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 68 was issued on 12 September
and is current for 14-16 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 13-Sep.
A coronal hole is expected to connect with the Earth in the second
half of the day 14-Sep, which may cause periods of G1. G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions are then expected over 15-16 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Sep were
mostly normal to mildly degraded. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be normal on UT day 14-Sep, and become mildly
degraded over 15-16 Sep due to expected coronal hole activity.
Conditions are expected to be worse during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 96
Sep 92
Oct 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
16 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 83 was issued
on 12 September and is current for 15-16 Sep. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Sep were mostly near predicted
values. Sporadic-E was observed in Townsville during local night
hours and spread-F was observed in Hobart during local dawn hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values on 14-Sep. MUFs
may become 10-20% depressed over 15-16 Sep, especially during
local night hours, due to expected coronal hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 26400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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