[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 September 25 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Sep 13 09:30:50 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Sep was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, however all regions are stable. Solar activity
is expected to be R0 with a chance for R1 over 13-15 Sep.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 12-Sep.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 13-15 Sep.
A large filament erupted from 1439 UT and was associated with
a large CME, however this originated on the far side of the Sun
and is not expected to be Earth directed. No other CMEs were
observed on UT day 12-Sep.
The solar wind environment on UT day 12-Sep was near background
conditions. The solar wind speed ranged from 359 to 439 km/s.
The peak total interlanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT
and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -5 nT.
The solar wind is expected to remain steady on UT day 13-Sep but
become enhanced over 14-15 Sep due to a large northern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12221221
Cocos Island 4 12211120
Darwin 6 12311222
Townsville 6 11321222
Learmonth 5 11212221
Alice Springs 5 12221221
Gingin 5 12211221
Canberra 5 12221221
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 11331221
Hobart 7 12331221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 02343310
Casey 8 23321221
Mawson 16 24322344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 4332 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 5 G0
14 Sep 13 G0-G1
15 Sep 18 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 68 was issued on 12 September
and is current for 14-16 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 12-Sep.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on UT day 13-Sep. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on UT day 14-Sep, although
the coronal hole is expected to connect with Earth by late in
the day which may cause periods of G1. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
are possible on 15-Sep due to continued coronal hole influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
15 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-Sep were
mostly normal to mildly degraded, especially in the northern
hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
normal on 13-Sep, trending to degraded over 14-15 Sep due to
the onset of a coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 96
Sep 92
Oct 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 83 was issued
on 12 September and is current for 15-16 Sep. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 12-Sep
were near predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values over 13-14 Sep but may begin to depress by 15-Sep due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 48900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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