[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 September 25 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Sep 15 09:30:51 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity R0 chance R1 R0 chance R1 R0 chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Sep was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk, which either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R0 with a chance of R1 over 15-17 Sep. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed over the UT day. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on UT day 14-Sep. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Sep. The solar wind
on UT day 14-Sep became disturbed late in the UT day from a possible
weak glancing CME with connection to the coronal hole. This CME
was first seen on the 11/0853 UT but initially analysed to miss
the Earth. Currently the solar wind is 483 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +15 to -3 nT. The solar wind is
expected to be enhanced over 15-17 Sep, as a large coronal hole
continues to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 21112233
Cocos Island 6 21112232
Darwin 9 22112234
Townsville 8 21112333
Learmonth 8 21222233
Alice Springs 8 22112233
Gingin 8 21212233
Canberra 6 11112223
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 11122223
Hobart 6 11122223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Macquarie Island 8 00333123
Casey 11 33321124
Mawson 11 33322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2332 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 18 G1-G2
16 Sep 15 G1-G2
17 Sep 17 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 68 was issued on 12 September
and is current for 14-16 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-Sep.
A coronal hole is currently connected with the Earth which may
cause periods of G1. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 15-16 Sep. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 17-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Sep were
mostly normal to mildly degraded. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be normal to mildly degraded on UT day 15-Sep,
and become mildly degraded over 16-17 Sep due to expected coronal
hole activity. Conditions are expected to be worse during local
night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 96
Sep 92
Oct 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 75 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 85 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 83 was issued
on 12 September and is current for 15-16 Sep. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Sep were mostly near predicted
values. Spread-F was observed in Hobart during local dawn hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values on 15-Sep. MUFs
may become 10-20% depressed over 16-17 Sep, especially during
local night hours, due to coronal hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 27300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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