[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 15 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 16 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.8 0415UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.7 0718UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 1410UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.7 2228UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Oct was at the R1 level
due to several M-class flares, the largest of which was an M4.8
flare at 15/0415UT, produced by AR4246 (N24W52, beta-gamma).
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR4246 is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
consolidation of its intermediate spots. AR4248 (N09W23, beta)
has shown mild decay in its intermediate spots. AR4252 (S13E24,
beta) has exhibited growth in its trailer spots. Two small unnumbered
regions are visible near S09E58 (beta) and N25W10 (beta). Both
unnumbered regions have shown mild spot growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 16-18 Oct. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 15-Oct. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 16-18 Oct, with a chance of S1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A west-directed CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 15/1536UT. This CME is considered
to be associated with an M1.1 flare at 15/1410UT produced by
AR4246. Modelling indicates this low velocity CME does not contain
a geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Oct
decreased, ranging from 460 to 565 km/s and is currently near
475 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -4 to +3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
on 16-Oct due to the arrival of two CMEs first observed 13-Oct.
The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over 17-18 Oct as
CME effects abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 23322002
Cocos Island 4 23211001
Darwin 7 23311112
Townsville 8 33322012
Learmonth 8 33322002
Alice Springs 6 23312002
Gingin 5 32212002
Canberra 5 23222001
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 23322102
Hobart 8 33322002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 33432101
Casey 16 45422112
Mawson 23 55433114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3232 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 30 G1, chance G2
17 Oct 20 G0-G1
18 Oct 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 80 was issued on 14 October
and is current for 15-17 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 15-Oct. G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 16-Oct, with a chance of G2 due to
the arrival of two CMEs first observed on 13-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 17-Oct as CME effects abate. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 18-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
17 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 15-Oct were
mostly normal. Fair HF conditions are expected on 16-Oct and
17-Oct due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 18-Oct. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 94 was issued on
15 October and is current for 15-17 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 15-Oct were near predicted
monthly values. A shortwave fadeout was observed 15/0352-0529UT,
impacting lower HF frequencies. MUFs are expected to be generally
expected to be near predicted monthly values on 16 and 18-Oct.
MUFs are expected to be 15% depressed on 17-Oct due to an anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 588 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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