[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 16 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 17 10:30:38 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 15/2228UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 1408UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1916UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 165/119 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Oct was at the R1 level
due to three M-class flares, the largest of which was an M1.3 flare
at 16/1408UT, produced by AR4246 (N22W67, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4246 is the largest and most magnetically complex
region on the disk and has shown mild decay of its intermediate
spots. AR4248 (N07W39, beta) has shown decay in its intermediate
spots. AR4250 (N07W22, beta), AR4255 (S06E42, beta), AR4256 (S16E68,
beta) have shown spot growth over the UT day. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 17-19 Oct. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 16-Oct. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 17-19 Oct, with a chance of S1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Oct
decreased, ranging from 498 to 380 km/s and is currently near
428 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -3 to +5 nT. An equatorial coronal hole is currently crossing
the central meridian and is expected to become geoeffective on
19-Oct. The solar wind speed will likely increase over the forecast
period due to the possible late arrival of two CMEs and coronal
hole influence on 19-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Cocos Island 2 01211001
Darwin 6 22211123
Townsville 4 22111112
Learmonth 4 22111112
Alice Springs 3 11111112
Gingin 3 11111111
Canberra 3 12111011
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11111111
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11120001
Casey 12 34430122
Mawson 15 23421153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 4333 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 20 G0-G1
18 Oct 15 G0, chance G1
19 Oct 19 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 80 was issued on 14 October
and is current for 15-17 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 16-Oct. G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 17-Oct due to the possible late arrival
of two CMEs first observed on 13-Oct. G0 with a chance of G1
are expected on 18-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 19-Oct as an equatorial coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Oct were
mostly normal. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected over
17-19 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 94 was issued on
15 October and is current for 15-17 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 16-Oct were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be generally
near predicted monthly values over 17-19 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 93100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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