[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 October 25 issued 2344 UT on 14 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Oct 15 10:44:22 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
Correction: Solar section - fadeout probability
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0041UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.0 1247UT possible lower European
M3.1 2036UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Oct was at the R1 level.
There are two solar regions of significance on the solar disk.
Solar region AR4246 (N24W38, beta-gamma-delta) produced the M2
flare at 14/0041UT and the M3.1 flare at 14/2036UT. Solar region
AR4248 (N09W09, beta-gamma-delta) produced the M2 flare at 14/1247UT.
These two regions are moderately large and magnetically complex.
Region AR4248 is showing development of intermediate spots and
AR4246 continues to develop with spot redistribution evident.
Other regions are smaller in size and magnetically simple. There
are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 15-17 Oct.
The Bureau flare forecast model whole of disk probabilities are
currently 75% for R1-R2 flares and 20% for R3-R5 flares, primarily
due to AR4246 and to a lesser extent AR4248. There is a chance
for an isolated solar proton flare. Both these regions are located
west of the solar central meridian and if a solar proton flare
does eventuate, the westward location increases the likelihood
of any possible flare related proton flux reaching the Earth.
S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 14-Oct. S0,
chance S1 solar proton conditions are expected over 15-17 Oct.
A coronal hole is visible in the north east solar quadrant at
solar longitude E30. Two large filament eruption shave been observed
in GOES SUVI 304 imagery, both not directed at the Earth. A solar
prominence/filament eruption was observed from 14/0000-0300UT,
located from N35E90-N15E60 which has been modelled as an Earth
miss. Another solar filament eruption at a very high solar latitude
(N70) and spanning east to west, was observed during the same
interval and is also not considered Earth directed, with some
of the filament plasma appearing to fall back along magnetic
field lines toward region AR4246, perhaps subsequently triggering
northward plasma ejecta from this region during the interval
14/0321-0349UT. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been
observed in LASCO C2 imagery up to 14/2148UT. A narrow northwest
CME was observed from 14/2028UT and using the US SWPC CAT tool
views of both LASCO C2 and STEREOA imagery a longitude of W85
was determined. GOES SUVI 304 imagery was then checked and plasma
west limb ejecta was confirmed in GOES SUVI 304 from 14/2021UT.
This CME then is currently considered not to be in association
with the M3.1 flare from AR4246 which was also near this time
and latitude. A large eastward CME was observed from 14/0125UT
in association with the filament eruption in the northeast solar
quadrant and has been modelled as an Earth miss. A very narrow
north northwest directed CME/shock was observed from 14/0348UT,
possibly associated with the plasma ejecta from AR4246 and is
considered insignificant due to the lack of angular expansion
of the ejecta. A very faint eastward directed CME was observed
14/0836UT which is considered insignificant. The solar wind speed
on UT day 14-Oct declined, ranging from 570 to 739 km/s and is
currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -2 to +5 nT. On 15-Oct the solar wind speed is
initially expected to continue to gradually decline due to waning
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, solar wind parameters
are then expected to mildly increase later on 15-Oct due to the
arrival of a CME first observed on 12-Oct associated with a C9.6
flare. A second and third CME arrival is now expected on 16-Oct,
which may be a stronger combined arrival, associated with two
M1 class flares on 13-Oct, further sustaining disturbed conditions
and enhancing the IMF. However, the considerable northward component
of these recent CMEs together with the currently elevated background
solar wind does increase uncertainty in the CME arrival time
and degree of influence of CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere.
The GOES satellite 2MeV electron flux observations have recently
been elevated, which is statistically associated with an increased
rate of geosynchronous orbiting satellite anomalies.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21211212
Cocos Island 3 21111201
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 5 --211212
Learmonth 6 32211212
Alice Springs 4 21210202
Gingin 6 31212212
Canberra 5 21211212
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 21212212
Hobart 6 22212212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 21212212
Casey 13 34422213
Mawson 27 45533325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 82 (Minor storm)
Canberra 62 (Active)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23 5534 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 18 G0-G1
16 Oct 30 G1,chance G2
17 Oct 20 Initially G1, then declining to G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 80 was issued on 14 October
and is current for 15-17 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 14-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 15-Oct due to the arrival of a CME
first observed on 12-Oct and G1, chance G2 conditions are expected
on 16-Oct due to the arrival of two CMEs which were first observed
on 13-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Oct Normal Fair Fair-poor
17 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Oct were
fair to normal for middle to high latitudes. Fair HF conditions
are expected from late 15-Oct and at times during 16-17 Oct,
due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity due to CME
arrivals. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on
13 October and is current for 13-15 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-Oct were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. A minor shortwave fadeout was observed
14/0038-0045UT, impacting lower HF frequencies. MUFs are expected
to be generally expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 15-Oct, with mild 15% depressions possible at times. Southern
Australian region MUFs may become 15% depressed over 16-17 Oct
due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 681 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 226000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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