[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Oct 13 10:30:52 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed, the largest of which was
a C9.6 flare at 12/1350UT produced by AR4246 (N24W14, beta-gamma).
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4248 (N09E17, beta-gamma) is the largest and
most magnetically complex region on the disk and has exhibited
spot development over the UT day. AR4246 has shown spot development
over the 24-hour period. Newly numbered AR4253 (S17E07, beta)
recently appeared on the solar disk and has shown mild spot growth.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 13-15 Oct. S0
solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 12-Oct. S0 solar
proton conditions are expected over 13-15 Oct. A north-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
12/1424UT. This CME is considered to be associated with the aforementioned
C9.6 flare from AR4246. Modelling indicates this low velocity
CME is Earth-directed, with an estimated arrival on 15-Oct at
1600UT +/- 12 hours. A southward CME was observed, visible in
LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 12/0824UT. This CME is considered
to be a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. No other
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 12-Oct increased, ranging from 595 to 775 km/s and
is currently near 720 km/s, with a declining trend from around
1100UT. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -10 to +11 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease
over 13-14 Oct due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects. The solar wind speed may mildly increase on 15-Oct due
to the arrival of a CME first observed on 12-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 33333433
Cocos Island 13 23233432
Darwin 19 33333444
Townsville 16 33333433
Learmonth 18 33333443
Alice Springs 16 33333433
Gingin 23 33334544
Canberra 15 23333433
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 23334433
Hobart 18 23434433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 35 33355653
Casey 37 47543333
Mawson 68 44554685
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 43 (Unsettled)
Townsville 19 (Quiet)
Learmonth 78 (Active)
Alice Springs 62 (Active)
Gingin 186 (Severe storm)
Canberra 184 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15 1442 3233
Planetary 17 2453 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 24 G1, chance of G2
14 Oct 12 G0
15 Oct 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 79 was issued on 12 October
and is current for 13-15 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-Oct, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Gingin. Mostly G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Casey and an isolated period of G4 observed
at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 13-Oct,
with a chance of G2 due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 14-Oct.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 15-Oct due to the
arrival of a CME first observed on 12-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-Oct were
normal to fair for mid latitudes and fair to poor for high latitudes.
HF conditions at middle to high latitudes are expected to be
normal to fair on 13-Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 14-Oct. Normal to
fair HF conditions are expected on 15-Oct. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 80 Southern Australian region 15-25% depressed
14 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 92 was issued on 12
October and is current for 12-13 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the northern Australian region on UT day 12-Oct were
near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed during local
day. Southern Australian region MUFs are expected to be 15-25%
depressed on 13-Oct with northern Australian region MUFs generally
expected to remain near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 14-15 Oct. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 93500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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