[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 October 25 issued 2333 UT on 13 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Oct 14 10:33:08 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0527UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 0919UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 1319UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Oct was at the R1 level.
Solar region AR4246 (N24W26, beta-gamma) produced the M2.7 flare
and the two M1 class flares and is currently growing. Solar region
AR4248 (N09E04, beta-gamma) produced C class flares the largest
a C9.5 at 13/1047UT. These two regions are moderately large and
more magnetically complex. Other regions are smaller in size.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1,chance R2 levels
over 14-16 Oct. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT
day 13-Oct. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 14-16
Oct. Earth directed CMEs have been observed in association with
the two M1 flares. A north directed CME was observed in LASCO
C2 and STEREOA with the M1.9 flare, first visible at 13/0624UT.
This slow CME was modelled as a very weak Earth arrival at approximately
17/1000UT +/- 12 hours. The M1.2 flare associated with a faster
stronger CME, though still predominately northwards, with a modelled
Earth arrival at 16/1700UT +/- 12 hours. The M2.7 flare did not
appear to have an associated CME. The solar wind speed on UT
day 13-Oct slighty declined ranging from 650 to 719 km/s and
is currently near 680 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -6 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to gradually decrease on 14 Oct due to waning coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects. The solar wind speed may mildly increase
on 15-Oct due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 12-Oct
associated with a C9.6 flare. A second CME arrival is now expected
on 16-Oct, which may be stronger, associated with a M1.2 flare,
further sustaining disturbed conditions and enhancing the IMF.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 15 44233322
Cocos Island 8 33222211
Darwin 16 44333223
Townsville 15 44233322
Learmonth 14 43233323
Alice Springs 15 44233322
Gingin 14 43233323
Canberra 12 34233222
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 34243322
Hobart 14 34333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 23 44454322
Casey 28 46533333
Mawson 52 56543375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 122 (Severe storm)
Canberra 131 (Severe storm)
Hobart 136 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 29 4444 445-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 12 G0
15 Oct 18 G0-G1
16 Oct 23 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 79 was issued on 12 October
and is current for 13-15 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Oct. G1-G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G1 planetary
conditions were observed on 13-Oct, early in the UT day. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 14-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 15-Oct due to the arrival of a CME first observed
on 12-Oct and G1, chance G2 conditions are expected on 16-Oct
due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 13-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Oct Normal Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Oct were
fair to normal for middle to high latitudes. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected on 14-Oct. Fair HF conditions are expected
on 15-16 Oct due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity
due to CME arrivals. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Perth depressed by 30% during the local day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on
13 October and is current for 13-15 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 13-Oct were generally
near predicted monthly values. Perth MUFs were depressed 30%
during the local day. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Perth
during local night hours. MUFs at some northern Australian region
sites were 15% depressed at times during the local day. MUFs
are expected to be generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 14-15 Oct, with mild 15% depressions possible at
times. Southern Australian region MUFs may become 15% depressed
over 16-17 Oct due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 713 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 332000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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