[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Oct 12 10:30:42 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Oct was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR4246 (N24W01, beta) is the largest region on the disk
and has exhibited spot development over the UT day. AR4247 (S11W36,
beta) has shown spot growth over the 24-hour period. AR4248 (N09E30,
beta) has shown spot development. An unnumbered region recently
rotated over the eastern limb near S12E80 (alpha) and appears
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 12-14 Oct,
with a chance of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
on UT day 11-Oct. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over
12-14 Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 11-Oct increased, ranging from 350 to 530
km/s and is currently near 520 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -9 to +11 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 12-14 Oct due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 23323323
Cocos Island 10 23322223
Darwin 14 33323324
Townsville 13 23323333
Learmonth 14 33323333
Alice Springs 12 23323323
Gingin 14 32323334
Canberra 12 23322333
Kennaook Cape Grim 14 23433323
Hobart 13 23423323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 20 13544422
Casey 16 34333333
Mawson 25 35433444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 4233 211-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 22 G1, chance of G2
13 Oct 18 G0-G1
14 Oct 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 78 was issued on 8 October
and is current for 11-13 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 11-Oct. G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the planetary and Antarctic regions.
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Oct, with a chance
of G2 due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 13-Oct as coronal hole effects wane. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 14-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 11-Oct were
normal to fair for mid and high latitudes. HF conditions at middle
to high latitudes are expected to be normal to fair over 12-13
Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected on 14-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 80 Southern Australian region 15-25% depressed
13 Oct 80 Southern Australian region 15% depressed
14 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian
region on UT day 11-Oct were 20-25% enhanced. Southern Australian
region MUFs were 20% enhanced during local day, but are so far
25% depressed after local dawn. Spread-F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. Southern Australian region MUFs are
expected to be 15-25% depressed at times over 12-13 Oct with
northern Australian region MUFs generally expected to remain
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. MUFs are expected
to recover to near predicted monthly values on 14-Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 68700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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