[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Oct 11 10:30:56 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Oct was at the R0 level,
with only low level C-class flares observed. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4246
(N24E12, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region
on the disk and has shown recent spot development. AR4247 (S11W23,
beta) has exhibited recent spot development in its trailer spots.
AR4248 (N08E52, beta) has shown spot growth over the UT day.
AR4242 (S11W64, beta) has shown recent mild growth. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 11-13 Oct, with a chance
of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 10-Oct.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 11-13 Oct. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Oct
was mostly stable, ranging from 285 to 395 km/s and is currently
near 365 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -6 to +4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
late on 11-Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21221012
Cocos Island 4 22221011
Darwin 6 31221112
Townsville 5 22121112
Learmonth 5 31221012
Alice Springs 4 21221002
Gingin 5 22221012
Canberra 4 21221012
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 21221011
Hobart 4 21221012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 22241011
Casey 14 44432012
Mawson 23 54433144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1121 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 17 G0-G1
12 Oct 22 G1, chance of G2
13 Oct 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 78 was issued on 8 October
and is current for 11-13 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 10-Oct. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 11 and 13-Oct. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 12-Oct, with a chance of G2. All forecast geomagnetic
activity is due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Oct were
mostly normal. HF conditions at middle to high latitudes are
expected to become degraded from late on UT day 11-Oct in association
with an increase in geomagnetic activity induced by a coronal
hole wind stream. These conditions are generally expected to
continue over 12-13 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 80 Southern Australian region 15% depressed
13 Oct 80 Southern Australian region 15% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Oct were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted values to
15% enhanced on 11-Oct. Southern Australian region HF conditions
may become degraded late in the UT day on 11-Oct in association
with coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity. Southern
Australian region MUFs may become 15% depressed at times over
12-13 Oct with northern Australian region MUFs generally expected
to remain near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 69500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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