[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 10 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1231UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Oct was R1 due to an M2
flare from just behind the northwest limb at solar latitude N10.
Plasma ejecta was observed in the GOES SUVI 304 imagery at 09/1237UT
on the northwest limb in association with the flare. There is
currently no solar region of significance on the visible solar
disk. The largest of the small on disk regions AR4247 (S11W08,
beta) which was recently slowly growing has now started to decay
with decline evident in its intermediate spots. Other regions
are very small. A new small region, which has shown some activity,
has rotated onto the solar disk at solar latitude S20. There
are currently four numbered sunspot regions and two new very
small unnumbered regions on the solar disk. One of the unnumbered
regions in the northeast solar quadrant though small is currently
growing. Other sunspots are currently either stable or in decay.
In GONG H-alpha imagery several filament eruptions were observed.
A small 5 degree long solar filament located at N25W45 erupted
at 09/0307UT. A small 5 degree long filament located at N25E45
erupted at 09/0522UT. Minor plasma motion at N20E40 was observed
in GOES SUVI 195 at 09/0536UT in association with this event.
Another small 7 degree long solar filament located at S25E15
erupted at 09/1916UT. A 20 degree long section of solar filament
located in the far southeast solar quadrant at S35E55 erupted
at 09/2024UT. Solar activity is expected to be R0 over 10-12
Oct. No significant Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A
faint narrow northeast CME was observed from 09/0648UT associated
with the small filament eruption in the northeast solar quadrant
and has been modelled as an Earth miss. A narrow westward CME
was observed from 09/1248UT associated with the behind the west
limb M2 flare. A faint northwest CME was observed from 09/2012UT
which appears to be associated with further behind the northwest
limb activity. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 09-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 10-12 Oct. A moderately sized equatorial coronal hole is
now just west of the solar central meridian, this hole appears
to have reduced in area for this rotation. The solar wind speed
on UT day 09-Oct was generally slow and steady with a very weak
CME signature at 09/0738UT, with the IMF total field becoming
mildly enhanced after the small discontinuity, possibly from
very slow CME(s) associated with predominately eastward directed
small filament eruptions on 03-Oct. Bz was orientated northwards
post shock arrival. The solar wind speed ranged from 327 to 392
km/s and is currently at 327 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +10 to -5 nT. The IMF Bz was mildly southward
09/1600-2300UT. The Earth is expected to enter the high speed
wind stream from the equatorial coronal hole mid to late in the
UT day on 11-Oct. Recurrence suggests the solar wind speed will
increase to approximately 600-650 km/s over 12-13 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11211012
Cocos Island 3 11211011
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 4 11222012
Alice Springs 3 11211012
Gingin 3 11211012
Canberra 3 11211012
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11211012
Hobart 3 12211002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 01100001
Casey 15 34521023
Mawson 19 12211156
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3432 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 8 G0
11 Oct 17 G0, reaching G1 during the second half of the
UT day
12 Oct 22 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 78 was issued on 8 October
and is current for 11-13 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 09-Oct. G0-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. A weak (9nT)
impulse was observed in the Bureau magnetometer data at 09/0831UT.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for 10-Oct. On 11-Oct
the geomagnetic field is expected to be initially at G0, increasing
to G1 during the second half of the UT day, due to the anticipated
Earth entry into a coronal hole wind stream. G1, chance G2 conditions
are expected on 12-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 Oct Normal Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 09-Oct were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be normal on 10-Oct. On 11-Oct HF conditions at middle to high
latitudes are expected to become degraded from late in the UT
day in association with an increase in geomagnetic activity induced
by a coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
11 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
12 Oct 80 Southern Australian region 15% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Oct were near predicted values to 20% enhanced.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 10-11 Oct. Southern Australian region HF conditions may
become degraded late in the UT day on 11-Oct in association with
coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity. The southern
Australian region MUFs may become 15% depressed at times during
12-13 Oct with northern Australian region MUFs generally expected
to remain near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 20000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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