[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 9 10:30:35 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Oct was R0. There is currently
no solar region of significance on the visible solar disk. Small
solar region AR4247 (S11E04, beta) is growing. Other regions
are very small. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. Other sunspots are currently either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0 over 09-11 Oct.
No significant Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A faint
narrow northwest CME was observed from 08/0836UT which could
not be correlated to on disk activity. A narrow southeast CME
was observed from 08/1600UT which appears to be from a solar
region just behind the southeast solar limb at solar latitude
S20. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT
day 08-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 09-11 Oct. A moderately sized equatorial coronal hole is
crossing the solar central meridian, this hole appears to have
reduced in area for this rotation. The solar wind speed on UT
day 8-Oct continued to slowly decline towards background levels.
The solar wind speed ranged from 400 to 335 km/s and is currently
at 335 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+3 to -6nT. The IMF Bz component has been mildly southward over
the UT day. The Earth is expected to enter the high speed wind
stream from the equatorial coronal hole mid to late in the UT
day on 11-Oct. Recurrence suggests the solar wind speed will
increase to approximately 650 km/s over 12-13 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22224211
Cocos Island 3 1121-110
Darwin 7 22223211
Townsville 9 22234211
Learmonth 7 22223211
Alice Springs 7 12224201
Gingin 9 32224201
Canberra 7 12224201
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 12235211
Hobart 10 12334211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 24235310
Casey 8 23322211
Mawson 23 55323433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15 3233 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 8 G0
10 Oct 8 G0
11 Oct 17 G0, reaching G1 during the second half of the
UT day.
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 78 was issued on 8 October
and is current for 11-13 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 08-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected over 09-10 Oct. On 11-Oct the
geomagnetic field is expected to be initially at G0, increasing
to G1 during the second half of the UT day, due to the anticipated
Earth entry into a coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 8-Oct were
fair to normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 9-10 Oct. On 11-Oct HF conditions at
middle to high latitudes are expected to become degraded late
in the UT day in association with an increase in geomagnetic
activity induced by a coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
10 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
11 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Oct were near predicted values to 15% enhanced.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night
hours. MUFS at Hobart and Norfolk Island were 15-20% depressed
after local dawn which are not expected to persist. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted values to 15% enhanced over
9-11 Oct. Southern Australian region HF conditions may become
degraded late in the UT day on 11-Oct in association with coronal
hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 37000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list