[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 07 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Oct 8 10:30:45 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Oct was R0, although a C9
level solar flare was observed at 2008 UT from AR4236 (N12W70,
beta). There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk. All sunspots are currently either stable or in decay,
with no region dominating as particularly magnetically complex.
Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a chance of R1 over
8-10 Oct.
A filament eruption was observed from near AR4244 (S21W39,
alpha) from 07/0549 UT. An associated CME directed to the solar
southeast was observed from 07/0700 UT but is not expected to
be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 7-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 8-10 Oct.
The solar wind environment on UT day 7-Oct was mildly enhanced.
The solar wind speed ranged from 483 to 390 km/s and is on a gentle
decline from near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 10nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -9nT. An extended period of southward Bz
was observed from 0700-1500 UT. The solar wind may be mildly
disturbed on UT day 8-Oct due to possible weak CME disturbances,
although this is low confidence. The solar wind is expected to
be mostly quiet over 9-10 Oct, although may become enhanced due
to a coronal hole by the end of the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22233322
Cocos Island 7 12123321
Darwin 11 22233323
Townsville 11 22234322
Learmonth 10 22233322
Alice Springs 9 22133322
Gingin 10 21233332
Canberra 9 12133322
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 12233322
Hobart 10 22233322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 25 22356431
Casey 17 44333332
Mawson 37 44345564
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 12 G0-G1
09 Oct 8 G0
10 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 7-Oct. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are possible
on 8-Oct due to prolonged southward solar wind Bz conditions
on 7-Oct, combined with a possible weak CME impact. Conditions
are expected to be G0 over 9-10 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 7-Oct were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 8-10 Oct, with slight degradations during
local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
09 Oct 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
10 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 7-Oct were mostly near predicted values to 15%
enhanced. Spread-F was observed in Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted values over
8-10 Oct to 15% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 84600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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