[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Oct 7 10:30:47 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 6-Oct was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR4232 (N05W56, beta), AR4236 (N12W63, beta),
and AR4241 (N16W20, beta) have unstable trailing spots, but their
leader spots are mostly stable. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay, and several regions have appeared
and reached maturity in the past day. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 7-9 Oct.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 6-Oct but none are
considered geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day
6-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
7-9 Oct.
The solar wind on UT day 6-Oct was generally steady, although there
was a weak CME shock at 0634 UT from a CME first observed on 03-Oct.
The solar wind speed ranged from near 450 to 375 km/s and is currently
on a very gentle decline as recent coronal hole and CME effects diminish.
The total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -6 nT. The
solar wind may become mildly disturbed on UT day 7-Oct due to
a weak anticipated CME impact, but this is low confidence. The
solar wind is expected to be near background conditions over
8-9 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 2 11101111
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 4 21012112
Learmonth 4 12102212
Alice Springs 2 11002111
Gingin 4 11112212
Canberra 2 10012111
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11112211
Hobart 4 11112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 11022201
Casey 17 45422222
Mawson 20 32212346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3332 211-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 11 G0, chance of G1
08 Oct 7 G0
09 Oct 5 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 77 was issued on 4 October
and is current for 6-7 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 6-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 7-Oct with a slight possibility of
G1 periods due to a weak anticipated CME impact, but this is
low confidence. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 8-9
Oct. 4
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 6-Oct were
mildly degraded in the northern hemisphere but on an improving
trend. Conditions were mostly normal in the southern hemisphere.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal over
7-9 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
08 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
09 Oct 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 6-Oct were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Sporadic-E was observed in Townsville and Perth during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 7-9 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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