[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Oct 6 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Oct was R0. There is currently
no solar region of significant size or magnetic complexity on
the visible solar disk. Medium sized solar regions AR4232 (N05W40,
beta) and AR4236 (N12W47, beta-gamma) which were recent regions
of interest continue to slowly decay. Other regions are smaller.
Solar region AR4241 (N16W04, beta) is showing growth in its trailer
spots. Solar region AR4242 (S11E04, beta) which was initially
developing is now decaying. There are currently six numbered
solar regions and one very small unnumbered region in the southeast
solar quadrant on the visible solar disk . All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. A 13 degree long section
of solar filament was observed to erupt from 05/2052UT in GONG
Cerro Tololo H-alpha imagery located at S25E35. Solar flare activity
is expected to be R0-R1 over 06-08 Oct. No significant Earth
directed CMEs have been observed up to 05/2036UT. Coronagraph
imagery will be checked for any CME associated with the southeast
filament eruption as images become available. A westward CME was
observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 05/0300UT. A northwest CME
was observed from 05/1336UT. These two CMEs could not be correlated
to any on disk activity, possibly associated with activity on
the western solar limb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on UT day 05-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 06-08 Oct. The influence of a broad coronal
hole located in the southern solar hemisphere continues to decline
as it moves well west of the solar central meridian. An equatorial
coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere at solar
longitude E40. The solar wind speed is declining and ranged from
580 to 427 km/s, and is currently near 443 km/s. The total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 5 nT. The north-south IMF
component range (Bz) was +3 to -3 nT. The magnitude of the IMF
Bt is currently small. The solar wind speed is expected to initially
further decline on 06-Oct, then solar wind parameters are expected
to become mildly elevated and disturbed from mid 06-Oct due to
a possible weak CME arrival observed with an M1.5 flare on 03-Oct.
The GOES 2MeV electron flux is currently elevated, which is statistically
associated with an increased rate of geosynchronous orbiting
satellite anomalies.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22222101
Cocos Island 2 12111100
Darwin 5 22222102
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 5 22222101
Alice Springs 4 22122001
Gingin 4 21122101
Canberra 5 22222111
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22222100
Hobart 6 22323100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 23333011
Casey 12 44322212
Mawson 22 55432214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20 4444 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 16 G0-G1
07 Oct 15 G0-G1
08 Oct 9 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 77 was issued on 4 October
and is current for 6-7 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 05-Oct. In the Antarctic region
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed. G1 periods may be
experienced over 06-07 Oct due to a possible weak CME arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
07 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to normal
on 05-Oct, with degraded conditions early in the UT day at middle
to high latitudes and associated moderate middle latitude MUF
depressions. Middle to high latitude conditions may become mildly
degraded for 06-07 Oct during local night hours due to a possible
weak CME arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
MUFs at Townsville 15-30% depressed 05/00-03UT.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Oct were depressed 15-20% in the southern
Australian region and near predicted monthly values in the northern
Australian region. The cause of the MUF depression for the middle
latitude Australian region is unclear, with MUFs gradually recovering
during the local day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 06-08 Oct, with mildly degraded conditions during
local night hours for the southern Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 602 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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