[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Nov 29 10:30:57 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.9 2222UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Nov was at the R2 level,
with an impulsive R2 (M5.9) flare observed at 28/2222UT from
a new solar region rotating onto the solar disk over the southeast
solar limb at solar latitude S15. This region could be of the
more complex beta-gamma magnetic class, however the current limb
proximity makes magnetic complexity assessment difficult. This
new region also produced several middle range C class solar flares
over the UT day. Solar region AR4291 (S14W09, beta-gamma) has
shown decay in its trailer spots and has been relatively flare
quiet. Solar region AR4288 (N18W22, beta) has shown minor development
in the the number of small spots to the north of its main spot.
Other on disk regions are small. There are currently five numbered
regions and one new unnumbered region on the visible solar disk.
All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1-R2 level over 29-Nov to 01-Dec, due
to the new active solar region rotating onto the disk over the
southeast solar limb and also due to the possible return of solar
region AR4274 to the north east solar limb on 29-Nov. This region
produced R3 flare activity on its previous disk transit with
a solar latitude of approximately N24 and whilst there is some
emission activity near this latitude on the northeast solar limb,
it currently does not seem particularly large/bright, with some
plasma ejecta observed at 28/1304UT in GOES 304 imagery. The
background solar X-ray flux has increased in the past 24 hours
probably more in association with the new medium sized region
currently rotating onto the disk over the southeast solar limb.
Plasma ejecta was observed at 28/1352UT in GOES 304 imagery from
this region. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible in
the northeast solar quadrant, with current solar longitude centre
at E35. The Earth may enter the wind stream from this hole in
about 4 days time. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 28-Nov. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
29 Nov to 01-Dec. No significantly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Eastward, non Earth directed CMEs were frequently observed over
the UT day 28-Nov. A faint southeast CME was observed from 28/0500UT
in LASCO C2 imagery which appeared to have some expansion across
the solar central meridian, however this CME could not be correlated
to on disk activity. The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Nov was
moderate to strong and continued to slowly decline as the recent
influence from a coronal hole wind stream gradually abates. The
solar wind speed ranged between 670-585 km/s and is currently
at 595 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) peaked at 7 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranged
between -6 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue
to further decline over 30-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 14 32343332
Cocos Island 8 22233221
Darwin 13 32333323
Townsville 16 32443332
Learmonth 14 32343332
Alice Springs 11 22333322
Gingin 17 32344432
Canberra 16 22444332
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 33444332
Hobart 18 33444332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 44 34656632
Casey 30 55544333
Mawson 37 55445454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Hobart 62 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 27 3345 4454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 12 G0
30 Nov 10 G0
01 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Nov. Geomagnetic activity was mildly elevated
due to the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. G1-G2 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 29-Nov to 01-Dec. There is a slight
chance of an isolated G1 period on 29-Nov as the influence of
a coronal hole wind stream continues to decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 28-Nov were
normal to fair, with fair conditions observed at middle to high
latitudes due to mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. HF conditions
are expected to be fair to normal on 29-Nov, improving to normal
over 30-Nov to 01-Dec. Isolated HF fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 20-30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 65 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 112 was issued on 28
November and is current for 29 Nov only. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 113 was issued on 28 November and is current for 29 Nov
to 1 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Nov were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced, becoming depressed by 15-30% after local dawn
this morning, possibly in association with mild overnight geomagnetic
activity. Spread F was observed during local night hours at Hobart.
Sporadic E was observed at times at Hobart and Niue. Australian
region MUFs are expected to be initially depressed 15-20% on
29-Nov, recovering as the day progresses. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values during 30-Nov to 01-Dec. Isolated
HF fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 668 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 279000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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