[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Nov 30 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0002UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.5 0420UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 1316UT possible lower European
M2.8 1608UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 2014UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.4 2148UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Nov was at the R1 level.
Solar region AR4294 (S14E68, beta-gamma) produced an M1.6 flare
at 29/0002UT, an M1.5 flare at 29/0420UT, an M1.1 flare at 29/1316UT,
an M1.4 flare at 29/2014UT and an M1.4 flare at 29/2148UT. Additional
spots have rotated onto the disk and this region is quite large.
In addition there is the leading edge of another set of sunspots
following just behind this large region, possibly indicating
that another reasonably large spot group may closely follow AR4294
onto the solar disk in the next 24 hours near solar latitude
S13. A solar region is also rotating over the northeast solar
limb at solar latitude N22-N24, and is considered to be the return
of region AR4274 which produced R3 events on its past disk transit.
Currently only the presumed leader spot is visible. This region
is yet to be numbered and produced an M2.8 limb flare at 29/1607UT.
North east limb plasma ejecta was observed from this returning
region in GOES 304 imagery from 29/0540UT. Other on disk regions
are relatively small. Of these AR4291 (S14W23, beta-gamma) and
AR4288 (N16W42, beta) are the more notable and both are in decay
and have been relatively flare quiet. There are currently four
numbered regions and one new unnumbered region on the visible
solar disk. All other regions are either stable or in decay.
A small four degree long solar filament located at S15W00 erupted
over the interval 29/1400-1459UT and is not considered significant.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1-R2 level over 30-Nov
to 02-Dec. Solar flare activity is likely to increase in coming
days due AR4294 and what appears to be another large region following
it onto the disk and also due to the current return of solar
region AR4274 which is rotating over the northeast solar limb.
An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible in the northeast
solar quadrant, with current solar longitude centre at E25. The
Earth may enter the wind stream from this hole in about five
days time. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 30-Nov. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
30 Nov to 02-Dec. Whilst the possibility of a solar proton event
has increased, the current far eastern solar longitudinal locations
of regions considered as possible sources of a solar proton flare
greatly reduces the likelihood of flare/CME accelerated protons
reaching the Earth. No significantly Earth directed CMEs were
observed. Relatively narrow equatorial eastern solar limb CME's
were observed from 29/0400UT, 29/0900UT and 29/1600UT. These
events possibly suggest an active solar region is behind the
eastern solar limb near the solar equator. A northeast CME was
observed from 29/0548UT in association with the plasma ejecta
that is considered to be from the return of AR4274 on the northeast
solar limb. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Nov was moderate
to strong and relatively steady, due to the ongoing influence
from a coronal hole wind stream. The solar wind speed ranged
between 580-643 km/s and is currently at 600 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 8 nT, with the north-south
component (Bz) ranged between -6 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to gradually decline over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 23333322
Cocos Island 9 22323321
Darwin 13 32333323
Townsville 12 22333332
Learmonth 14 32324422
Alice Springs 13 24333322
Gingin 16 33324423
Canberra 12 23333322
Kennaook Cape Grim 16 23433423
Hobart 16 23433423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 39 24656523
Casey 29 46443433
Mawson 37 35444456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 11 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 4344 444-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 12 G0
01 Dec 10 G0
02 Dec 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Nov. Geomagnetic activity was mildly elevated
due to the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. G2 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 30-Nov to 02-Dec. There is a slight
chance of an isolated G1 period on 30-Nov as the influence of
a coronal hole wind stream slowly declines.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 29-Nov were
fair to normal, with fair conditions observed at middle to high
latitudes due to mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. HF conditions
are expected to be fair to normal on 30-Nov, improving to normal
over 01-02 Dec. Frequent HF fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 15-30% during the local day at
Townsville and Brisbane. Near predicted
monthly values at other sites.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed 15% during the local day then
near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 113 was issued on
28 November and is current for 29 Nov to 1 Dec. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 29-Nov
were initially depressed by 15-30% then recovering during the
local day. Southern Australian region MUFs are 15% depressed
after local dawn this morning. Spread F was observed during local
night hours at Hobart. Sporadic E was observed during the local
day at Niue. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
monthly values during 30-Nov to 02-Dec. Frequent HF fadeouts
are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 651 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 263000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list