[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Nov 28 10:30:46 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity for UT day 27-Nov was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare activity observed throughout the day.
There are currently five active regions on the visible solar
surface, with active region AR4191 (S14E03, beta-gamma) being
the largest and most magnetically complex region. This region
has shown both growth and decay in the trailer spots over the
last 24 hours. AR4288 (N18W10, beta) has shown some growth in
mid spots on the northern side. All other regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to remain at the
R0 level, with a chance of R1 over the period 28-30 Nov. Solar
proton conditions were at the S0 level, with the 10 MeV proton
flux showing a slight elevation above background for the third
day in a row starting from after 27/1800UT, but still well within
the S0 range. S0 conditions are expected to continue over 28-30
Nov. No earth directed CMEs were observed. A CME from the farside
was first observed at 26/2348UT in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
off the eastern limb and may indicate the presence of a strong
active region rotating towards the Earth facing side of the Sun
with AR4274, previous X class producing AR due to return from
29 Nov. The solar wind speed remained very strong over the past
UT day due to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole. The solar wind speed largely ranged between 620-730
km/s over the last UT day with a general decreasing trend and
is currently at 620km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) peaked at 8 nT during 27-Nov, with the North-South
component (Bz) ranging between -6 and +4 nT. The solar wind speed
is forecast to ease from very strong to strong over the next
24 hours, and continue declining over 29-30 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 22334323
Cocos Island 10 2223420-
Darwin 16 22344333
Townsville 17 22335333
Learmonth 18 22345333
Alice Springs 15 2233530-
Gingin 12 2233431-
Canberra 15 2343430-
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 23444323
Hobart 16 23444223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 39 2465553-
Casey 28 5544432-
Mawson 39 4454555-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 14 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 10 (Quiet)
Gingin 89 (Minor storm)
Canberra 91 (Minor storm)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23 3444 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 14 G0, chance of G1
29 Nov 12 G0
30 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
region over UT day 27-Nov, with a period of G1 geomagnetic conditions
observed at Townsville, Learmonth and Alice Springs. G1 levels
were seen across the Antarctic region with a period of G2 at
Macquarie Island. Geomagnetic conditions are forecast at the
G0 level with a chance of G1 over 28-Nov, due to ongoing but
declining coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. These
conditions will continue to decline to G0 on 29-30 Nov as the
equatorial coronal hole rotates past a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 27-Nov were
normal to fair, with fair conditions observed across the high
latitudes due to current geomagnetic conditions. Conditions are
expected to be normal to fair over 28 Nov, with further depressions
due to ongoing geomagnetic activity, improving over 29-30 Nov.
Scintillation events are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to enhanced by 15-40% in the Australian region
for UT day 27-Nov. Low frequency sporadic-E was observed in the
southern Australian region, and spread F was also observed in
Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
during 28-30 Nov. Sporadic-E during local night hours may also
be observed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 724 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 289000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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