[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Nov 27 10:30:56 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity for UT day 26-Nov was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare activity observed throughout the day.
There are currently six active regions on the visible solar surface,
with Active Region AR4191 (S14E17, beta-gamma) being the largest
and most magnetically complex region. This region has shown some
growth in the trailer spots over the last 24 hours. All other
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to remain at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over the period
27-29 Nov. Solar proton conditions were at the S0 level, with
the 10 MeV proton flux showing a slight elevation above background
after 26/1600UT, but still well within the S0 range. S0 conditions
are expected to continue over 27-29 Nov. A north east directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) was visible over the UT day over
the north east limb. This CME was considered a far side event
and not geoeffective, but may indicate the presence of a strong
active region rotating towards the Earth facing side of the Sun.
The solar wind speed remained very strong over the past UT day
due to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole. The solar wind speed largely ranged between 630-820 km/s
over the last UT day with a general decreasing trend before increasing
again from 26/1800UT, and is currently at 710km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 8 nT during 26-Nov,
with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -6 and +6
nT. The solar wind speed is forecast to remain very strong over
the next 24 hours, before declining over 28-29 Nov. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 26/1010UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: G1
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 17 33335322
Cocos Island 14 22334422
Darwin 15 33334323
Townsville 16 33344322
Learmonth 18 33335422
Alice Springs 16 23335322
Gingin 18 33335422
Canberra 15 23434322
Kennaook Cape Grim 20 34435322
Hobart 21 34435332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 42 35656532
Casey 34 56544333
Mawson 52 44546656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 92 (Minor storm)
Hobart 105 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 32 5454 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 18 G0, chance of G1
28 Nov 14 G0
29 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
region over UT day 26-Nov, with a period of G1 geomagnetic conditions
observed at around half of the Australian region. G2 levels were
seen across the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are
forecast at the G0 level with a chance of G1 over 27-Nov, due
to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. These
conditions will decline to G0 on 28-29 Nov as the equatorial
coronal hole rotates past a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 26-Nov were
fair to poor, with poor conditions observed across the high latitudes
due to current geomagnetic conditions. Conditions are expected
to be fair over 27 Nov, with further depressions due to ongoing
geomagnetic activity, improving over 28-29 Nov. Scintillation
events are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region for UT day 26-Nov, with
depressions of up to 30% seen after local dawn and some enhancements
in northern regions of up to 20%. Low frequency sporadic-E was
observed in the southern Australian region, and spread F was
also observed in Hobart. MUFs were 15% depressed over the last
24 hours in the Antarctic region. MUFs may continue to be depressed
by 15% throughout 27-Nov due to the ongoing geomagnetic activity.
However, these should recover to near predicted monthly values
during 28-29 Nov. Sporadic-E during local night hours may also
be observed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 765 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 282000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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