[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Nov 26 10:30:45 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity for UT day 25-Nov was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare activity observed throughout the day.
There are currently seven active regions on the visible solar
surface, with Active Region (AR) 4291 (S14E29, beta-gamma-delta)
being the largest and most magnetically complex. This region
has shown further mild growth in the last 24 hours, with development
in trailer regions. AR4292 (S16W32, beta-gamma) has also shown
some growth over the last UT day. All other regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to remain at the
R0 level, with a chance of R1 over the period 26-28 Nov. Solar
proton conditions were at the S0 level, with the 10 MeV proton
flux showing a slight elevation above background after 25/1730UT,
but still well within the S0 range. S0 conditions are expected
to continue over 26-28 Nov. Several north east directed Coronal
Mass Ejections (CMEs) were visible over the day, all associated
with coronal movement over the north east limb. These CMEs are
considered far side events and not geoeffective, but may indicate
the presence of a strong active region rotating towards the Earth
facing side of the Sun. The solar wind speed remained very strong
over the past UT day due to high speed wind stream effects from
an equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed largely ranged
between 720-820 km/s over the last UT day. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 nT during 25-Nov,
with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +7
nT. The solar wind speed is forecast to remain very strong over
the next 24 hours, before declining over 27-28 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: G1
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 22 33354433
Cocos Island 15 33333432
Darwin 20 3-344433
Townsville 23 33354443
Learmonth 26 33354543
Alice Springs 23 23354533
Gingin 23 33354443
Canberra 21 23354433
Kennaook Cape Grim 23 33454433
Hobart 23 33454433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 50 34576543
Casey 39 56644334
Mawson 53 45555665
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22 3334 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 25 G0-G1
27 Nov 18 G0 chance G1
28 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
region over UT day 25-Nov, with a period of G1 geomagnetic conditions
observed at most sites in the Australian region. G2 levels were
seen across the Antarctic region, with a brief period of G3 seen
in Macquarie Island. Geomagnetic conditions are forecast to remain
at the G0-G1 level over 26-Nov, due to ongoing coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects. These conditions will decline to G0
with a chance of G1 on 27-Nov, and G0 on 28-Nov as the equatorial
coronal hole rotates past a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Fair Fair Poor
27 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 24-Nov were
fair to poor, with poor conditions observed across the southern
hemisphere due to current geomagnetic conditions. Depressions
were also observed in the European and North American regions
during local night hours. Brief mild scintillation activity was
also observed in northern polar regions. Conditions are expected
to be fair over 26 Nov, with further depressions due to ongoing
geomagnetic activity, improving over 27-28 Nov. Scintillation
events are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 72 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 78 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region for UT day 25-Nov, with
depressions of up to 30% seen after local dawn. Low frequency
sporadic-E was observed in the southern Australian region, and
spread F was also observed in Hobart. MUFs were 20% depressed
over the last 24 hours in the Antarctic region. MUFs may continue
to be depressed by 15% throughout 26-Nov due to the ongoing geomagnetic
activity. However, these should recover to near predicted monthly
values during 27-28 Nov. Sporadic-E during local night hours
may also be observed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 604 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 323000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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