[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Nov 25 10:30:47 AEDT 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     R0 chance R1       R0 chance R1       R0 chance R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level for UT day 24-Nov, 
with no significant flare events observed. There are currently 
seven numbered Active Regions on the solar disk, with the confluence 
of Active Regions 4290 (S09E36, alpha) and 4291 (S14,E43, beta-gamma) 
being the most magnetically complex. These regions have both 
shown mild growth in their trailer spots over the past 24 hours. 
Active regions 4288 (N18E30, alpha) and 4292 (S16W17, beta) have 
also shown trailer spot growth over the last UT day, with all 
other regions stable. R0 solar conditions are forecast over UT 
days Nov 25-27, with a chance of R1 due to the growth of multiple 
sunspot regions over the last UT day. S0 solar radiation storm 
conditions were observed over the past 24 hours, with the proton 
flux consistent with background values. Solar radiation storm 
conditions are forecast to be at the S0 level over the period 
25-27 Nov. There were two Coronal Mass Ejection events observed 
during UT 24-Nov, of which neither were considered to be geoeffective. 
The solar wind speed has increased over the past last 24 hours, 
climbing from 460-510 km/s early in the UT day, to 650-750 km/s 
during the last six hours. This is due to high speed wind stream 
effects from an equatorial coronal hole, which has moved into 
a geoeffective position. The interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(IMF, Bt) peaked at 15 nT during 24-Nov, with the North-South 
component (Bz) ranging between -11 and +10 nT. The solar wind 
speed is expected to remain elevated for 25-26 Nov due to the 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, before declining 
on 27-Nov as this coronal hole rotates further across the solar 
disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   23334433
      Cocos Island        11   22234322
      Darwin              18   33334433
      Townsville          19   23335433
      Learmonth           24   33345533
      Alice Springs       19   23335433
      Gingin              20   33335433
      Canberra            15   23334333
      Kennaook Cape Grim  18   23444333
      Hobart              20   23444433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    34   23356553
      Casey               38   56644333
      Mawson              45   45555555

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              69   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   3222 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov    20    G0-G1
26 Nov    20    G0-G1
27 Nov    12    G0 chance G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were mostly observed across 
the Australian region for UT day 24-Nov, with periods of G1 seen 
in Alice Springs, Gingin, Learmonth, and Townsville. Periods 
of G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic 
region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 25-26 Nov, 
due to high speed wind stream effects from the northern coronal 
hole. These conditions are expected to decline on 27-Nov, as 
this coronal hole moves further towards the western solar limb.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair
26 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair
27 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 24-Nov were 
mostly fair, with fair-poor conditions observed towards the end 
of the UT day across the European, African, and Atlantic regions 
due to current geomagnetic conditions. Some enhancements were 
seen in the Asia and Australia regions. Brief scintillation activity 
was observed in polar regions at approximately 24/1600UT. Conditions 
are expected to be fair-normal over 25-27 Nov, with further depressions 
due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Scintillation events are 
possible, particularly in the Atlantic region.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      104
Nov      89
Dec      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were largely near 
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region, 
with some mild low frequency sporadic-E observed. Spread F was 
also observed in Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced by 15% for 25-26 Nov, declining to 
near predicted monthly values during 27 Nov. Sporadic-E during 
local night hours may be observed.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    78600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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