[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Nov 25 10:30:47 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity R0 chance R1 R0 chance R1 R0 chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level for UT day 24-Nov,
with no significant flare events observed. There are currently
seven numbered Active Regions on the solar disk, with the confluence
of Active Regions 4290 (S09E36, alpha) and 4291 (S14,E43, beta-gamma)
being the most magnetically complex. These regions have both
shown mild growth in their trailer spots over the past 24 hours.
Active regions 4288 (N18E30, alpha) and 4292 (S16W17, beta) have
also shown trailer spot growth over the last UT day, with all
other regions stable. R0 solar conditions are forecast over UT
days Nov 25-27, with a chance of R1 due to the growth of multiple
sunspot regions over the last UT day. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed over the past 24 hours, with the proton
flux consistent with background values. Solar radiation storm
conditions are forecast to be at the S0 level over the period
25-27 Nov. There were two Coronal Mass Ejection events observed
during UT 24-Nov, of which neither were considered to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed has increased over the past last 24 hours,
climbing from 460-510 km/s early in the UT day, to 650-750 km/s
during the last six hours. This is due to high speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole, which has moved into
a geoeffective position. The interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) peaked at 15 nT during 24-Nov, with the North-South
component (Bz) ranging between -11 and +10 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated for 25-26 Nov due to the
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, before declining
on 27-Nov as this coronal hole rotates further across the solar
disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 17 23334433
Cocos Island 11 22234322
Darwin 18 33334433
Townsville 19 23335433
Learmonth 24 33345533
Alice Springs 19 23335433
Gingin 20 33335433
Canberra 15 23334333
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 23444333
Hobart 20 23444433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 34 23356553
Casey 38 56644333
Mawson 45 45555555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 3222 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 20 G0-G1
26 Nov 20 G0-G1
27 Nov 12 G0 chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were mostly observed across
the Australian region for UT day 24-Nov, with periods of G1 seen
in Alice Springs, Gingin, Learmonth, and Townsville. Periods
of G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 25-26 Nov,
due to high speed wind stream effects from the northern coronal
hole. These conditions are expected to decline on 27-Nov, as
this coronal hole moves further towards the western solar limb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
26 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 24-Nov were
mostly fair, with fair-poor conditions observed towards the end
of the UT day across the European, African, and Atlantic regions
due to current geomagnetic conditions. Some enhancements were
seen in the Asia and Australia regions. Brief scintillation activity
was observed in polar regions at approximately 24/1600UT. Conditions
are expected to be fair-normal over 25-27 Nov, with further depressions
due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Scintillation events are
possible, particularly in the Atlantic region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were largely near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region,
with some mild low frequency sporadic-E observed. Spread F was
also observed in Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to enhanced by 15% for 25-26 Nov, declining to
near predicted monthly values during 27 Nov. Sporadic-E during
local night hours may be observed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 78600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list