[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Nov 20 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level for UT day 19-Nov,
with no significant flare events observed. There are currently
three numbered Active Regions on the solar disk and one unnumbered
sunspot region near N04E69 (alpha) which has recently rotated
onto the solar disk. AR4284 (S06W44, beta) has decayed slightly
over the UT day and is currently the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk. All other regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity over the period 20-22 Nov
is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 due to
a C9.9 flare observed at 19/0953UT from a region beyond the eastern
limb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed over
the past 24 hours. Solar radiation storm conditions are forecast
to be at the S0 level over the period 20-22 Nov. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed over the UT day. The solar wind speed has
declined over the past 24 hours, ranging between 415-350 km/s
and is currently near 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 nT during 19-Nov, with the North-South
component (Bz) ranging between -3 and +8 nT. The solar wind speed
will likely remain at this level over the 20-22 Nov, with a slight
increase possible due to high speed wind stream effects from
a small northern coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 10101121
Cocos Island 2 --111110
Darwin 2 10101112
Townsville 3 10111122
Learmonth 2 10011121
Alice Springs 3 10101122
Gingin 2 10110021
Canberra 1 00100021
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 00101022
Hobart 2 10101021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 10 33332122
Mawson 5 21221022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 3221 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 5 G0
21 Nov 7 G0
22 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across both
the Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 19-Nov. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 20-22 Nov, with no significant coronal
mass ejection events or no coronal hole high speed wind streams
forecast over this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 19-Nov were
mostly normal, with normal-fair conditions observed at low latitudes
in the America and Atlantic regions, and scintillation events
in this region occurring between 18/2000 and 19/0300UT. Generally,
normal HF conditions are expected over 20-22 Nov, with further
scintillation events possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were largely near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with 20% enhancements
observed in the Northern Australian region during local night.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart and Sporadic-E was observed at
Townsville and Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15% over the
period 20-22 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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