[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Nov 19 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level for UT day 18-Nov,
with no significant flare events observed. There are currently
four numbered Active Regions on the solar disk and one unnumbered
sunspot region near S21E60 (alpha), with AR4284 (S06W30, Beta)
the largest and most magnetically complex. AR4284 has exhibited
growth over the past 24 hours. Newly numbered region AR4285 (S16W39,
Beta) showed slight growth over the UT day. All other regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity over the period
19-21 Nov is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of
R1 due to high level C-class flaring activity from AR4284. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed over the past
24 hours. Solar radiation storm conditions are forecast to be
at the S0 level over the period 19-21 Nov. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed over the UT day. The solar wind speed has
declined over the past 24 hours, ranging between 510-420 km/s
and is currently at 415km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 7 nT during 18-Nov, with the North-South
component (Bz) ranging between -4 and +4 nT. The solar wind speed
will likely remain at this level over the 19-21 Nov, with a slight
increase possible due to high speed wind stream effects from
a small northern coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 22100001
Cocos Island 1 12100000
Darwin 2 22100001
Townsville 3 --211111
Learmonth 2 22110001
Alice Springs 2 22100001
Gingin 2 21100001
Canberra 2 22100001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 22200000
Hobart 4 23200001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 22210000
Casey 16 35521111
Mawson 12 43411113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 4331 212-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 5 G0
20 Nov 5 G0
21 Nov 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
regions over UT day 18-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region over the same period, with
brief periods of G1 reported at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 19-21 Nov, with no significant coronal mass ejection
events or no coronal hole high speed wind streams forecast over
this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 18-Nov were
mostly normal, with normal-fair conditions observed at low latitudes
in the America and Atlantic regions, and scintillation events
in this region occurring between 17/2000 and 18/0500UT. Generally, normal
HF conditions are expected over 19-21 Nov, with further scintillation
events possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were largely near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with 20-30%
enhancements observed in the Northern Australian region. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15% over the
period 19-21 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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