[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 17 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Nov 18 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level for UT day 17-Nov,
with no significant flare events observed. There are currently
four numbered Active Regions on the solar disk, with AR4284 (S07W05,
Beta) the largest and most magnetically complex. This region
has exhibited some growth over the past 24 hours, while the other
three numbered regions were stable or in decline. Two new active
regions rotated over the eastern limb at at S17E70 (alpha), S21E70
(beta), which appear stable. A further small unnumbered sunspot
region appeared at S09W10 (alpha) late in the UT day. Solar activity
over the period 18-20 Nov is expected to be at the R0 level,
with a chance of R1 due to high level C-class flaring activity
from AR4284. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
over the past 24 hours, with the proton flux declining from the
slightly elevated levels towards background flux. Solar radiation
storm conditions are forecast to be at the S0 level over the
period 18-20 Nov. Two coronal mass ejections occurred over the
previous UT day, of which neither were considered to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed has declined over the past 24 hours, ranging
between 450-550 km/s throughout the latter half of the day, and
is currently at 480km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) peaked at 7 nT during 17-Nov, with the North-South
component (Bz) ranging between -5 and +6 nT. The solar wind speed
will likely remain at this level over the 18-20 Nov, with only
limited high speed wind stream effects currently observed from
a northern coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22212122
Cocos Island 4 22111021
Darwin 7 32211123
Townsville 7 32212122
Learmonth 6 32211122
Alice Springs 4 22201022
Gingin 7 32212122
Canberra 4 22202111
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 23312112
Hobart 7 23312112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 33303111
Casey 33 46643233
Mawson 19 44423234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 4334 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 8 G0
19 Nov 7 G0
20 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
regions over UT day 17-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region over the same period, with
brief periods of G2 reported at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 18-20 Nov, with no significant coronal mass ejection
events or no coronal hole high speed wind streams forecast over
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 17-Nov were
mostly normal, with fair-poor conditions observed at low latitudes
in the America and Atlantic regions, and scintillation events
in this region occurring between 17/0030-0330UT. Mostly normal
conditions are expected over 18-20 Nov, with further scintillation
events possible, particularly in the low latitude Atlantic region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Nov 109 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov 111 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were largely near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with some
enhancements seen at Niue Island, and some mild depressions during
the morning hours in Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to enhanced by 15% over the period 18-20 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 614 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 364000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list