[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 November 25 issued 2331 UT on 16 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Nov 17 10:31:06 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.1 0817UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0 chance R1 R0 chance R1
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity for UT day 16-Nov was at the R1 level,
with an M3.1 class flare at 16/0749UT. There are currently four
numbered active regions on the solar disk, with newly developed
Active Region AR4284 (S06W03, beta), being the largest and most
magnetically complex. This region has shown growth since appearing
on the disk yesterday. Two small unnumbered regions have also
appeared at S10E78 and N07E074, and both appear to have alpha
magnetic classification. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R0-R1 level over 17 Nov, decreasing to R0 with a chance of
R1 18-19 Nov. Solar proton flux was slightly elevated on UT day
16-Nov due to effects of a previous X4.0 flare. This flux was
still well within S0 levels, and will remain at this level over
17-19 Nov. Several CMEs were observed over the past UT day. None
are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed remained enhanced
over the past 24 hours due to the ongoing effects of the previous
CMEs, broadly ranging between 570-630 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 16 nT during this
period, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -8
and +15 nT. The solar wind speed will likely remain slightly
elevated over 17-Nov, due to high speed wind stream effects from
a northern coronal hole that has rotated past solar meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 23233333
Cocos Island 11 23233322
Darwin 13 33233233
Townsville 14 33233333
Learmonth 15 33333333
Alice Springs 11 23233223
Gingin 15 33333333
Canberra 14 24233333
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 24333333
Hobart 18 25333333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 19 34254322
Casey 64 67763343
Mawson 36 45445553
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 61 (Active)
Canberra 55 (Unsettled)
Hobart 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2122 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 13 G0
18 Nov 9 G0
19 Nov 11 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 94 was issued on 16 November
and is current for 16-17 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed across the Australian regions over the entire UT day
16-Nov, with two weak (9nT, 14nT) impulses observed at 0213UT
and 0511UT not sufficient to increase geomagnetic activity beyond
the G0 level. Periods of G1-G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in parts of the Antarctic region over the same period. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 17-19 Nov, with only a mild solar
wind speed increase seen due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Nov were
mostly normal, with fair conditions at the beginning and end
of the UT day. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 17-19
Nov. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were largely near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with some
enhancements seen at Niue Island. Spread-F was observed during
local night hours in Hobart and the Antarctic region. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15%
over the period 17-19 Nov. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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