[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 15 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Nov 16 10:30:52 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity R2, chance R3 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity for UT day 15-Nov was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4274 (N25W79,
beta-gamma-delta) is still the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk, but will rotate off over the
coming day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. An unnumbered region has developed on the solar disk at
around S19E07 with alpha magnetic complexity. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R2 level, with a chance of R3 on 16-Nov
until AR4274 rotates off the disk. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 17-18 Nov. Solar radiation storm conditions
were elevated but in decline and below the S1 threshold on 15-Nov.
S0 conditions, with a chance of S1 are expected over 16-17 Nov.
S0 conditions are expected on 18-Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed on UT day 15-Nov. The solar wind speed declined slightly
on UT day 15-Nov. The solar wind speed mostly ranged between
640 km/s and 490 km/s and is currently at around 575 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was
6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +6
nT. An increase in the solar wind speed is expected in the first
half of 16-Nov due to a pair of glancing impacts from CMEs first
observed on 13 and 14-Nov, combined with high speed wind stream
effects from a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 21121123
Cocos Island 3 11111121
Darwin 8 31121124
Townsville 6 21121123
Learmonth 6 22111223
Alice Springs 6 21121123
Gingin 6 22221122
Canberra 6 21221123
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 22221223
Hobart 7 22221223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 22232123
Casey 25 44543244
Mawson 29 33434265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2122 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 25 G1, chance of G2
17 Nov 10 G0
18 Nov 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
region over UT day 15-Nov. Mostly G1 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with a period of G2 observed at Mawson.
G1 conditions, with a chance of G2 are expected on 16-Nov due
to two anticipated glancing CME impacts combined with a coronal
hole high speed wind stream. G0 conditions are expected over
17-18 Nov
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0915UT 14/11, Ended at 1135UT 14/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 15-Nov were
mostly normal, with fair conditions at the beginning and end
of the UT day. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 16-18
Nov, with possible mild degradations on 16-Nov due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 111 was issued on
14 November and is current for 14-16 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were enhanced by 15% during local
day hours and up to 25% during local night hours. Spread-F was
observed during local night hours in Hobart, and Sporadic-E was
observed at Canberra, Perth, Norfolk Island, Brisbane, Townsville
and Niue during local evening hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values on 16-Nov and near predicted monthly
values to enhanced by 15% over 17-18 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 588 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 34500 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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