[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 November 25 issued 2342 UT on 14 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Nov 15 10:42:22 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0739UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X4.0 0830UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.3 2012UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 2131UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity R2, chance of R3 R2, chance of R3 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity for UT day 14-Nov was at the R3 level,
due to a X4.0 flare at 14/0830UT. There were also two M-class
flares at the R1 level observed during the day. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4274
(N25W79, beta-gamma-delta) is still the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk. This region was responsible
for all the notable flares on 14-Nov. This region may be developing,
however its proximity to the western limb makes this difficult
to determine. AR4279 (S13W07, beta) also showed development,
but remains small and simple. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R2
level, with a chance of R3 over 15-16 Nov and R1-R2 on 17-Nov
as AR4274 rotates off the solar disk. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S1 level on 14-Nov due to the X4.0 flare observed
at 14/0830UT. S1 conditions were observed from 14/1025UT - 13/1245UT.
S0 conditions are currently being observed. Further strong flare
activity from AR4274 is likely to increase the proton flux over
the S1 threshold. S0-S1 conditions are expected over 15-16 Nov.
S0 conditions are expected on 17-Nov. A large, fast, east directed
CME was observed in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 14/0800UT,
associated with the X4.0 flare mentioned above. Modelling indicates
that most of this CME will pass ahead of Earth, but a glancing
impact is expected on 16-Nov at 0300UT +/- 10 hours. A CME observed
on 13-Nov has been assessed to present the chance of a glancing
impact, also in the early hours of 16-Nov UT day. The solar wind
speed declined over the UT day 14-Nov. The solar wind speed mostly
ranged between 675 km/s and 530 km/s and is currently at around
560 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -2 to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue
to decline over 15-Nov. An increase is expected in the early
hours of 16-Nov due to two anticipated glancing impacts from
CMEs first observed on 13 and 14-Nov. A coronal hole in the northern
hemisphere may also influence the solar wind speed over 16-17
Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111201
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 7 2-------
Townsville 4 11112211
Learmonth 4 11222201
Alice Springs 3 11112201
Gingin 3 11211201
Canberra 3 11111201
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11111201
Hobart 3 22111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 11010000
Casey 17 44442222
Mawson 7 23122212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 43
Planetary 59 7764 5432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 8 G0
16 Nov 25 G1, chance of G2
17 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
and Antarctic regions over UT day 14-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 15-Nov. G1 conditions, with a chance of G2 are
expected on 16-Nov due to two anticipated glancing CME impacts
combined with a coronal hole high speed wind stream. G0 conditions
are expected on 17-Nov
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0950UT 11/11, Ended at 1550UT 13/11
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0915UT 14/11, Ended at 1135UT 14/11
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1010UT 11/11, Ended at 0215UT 13/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Nov were
poor at the start of the UT day and slowly recovered towards
normal to fair over the day. Mostly normal conditions are expected
over 15-17 Nov, with possible mild degradations on 16-Nov due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 111 was issued on
14 November and is current for 14-16 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region began the UT day 14-Nov depressed
by 20% in the southern regions. Conditions improved to near predicted
monthly values over the UT day. Spread-F was observed during
local night hours in Hobart, and Sporadic-E was observed during
local nigh hours at Norfolk Island, Niue, Brisbane and Townsville.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17
Nov, with mild depressions possible on 16-Nov due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 811 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 53200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list