[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 November 25 issued 2332 UT on 13 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Nov 14 10:32:55 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity for UT day 13-Nov was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare events recorded. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions, with AR4274 (N25W79, beta-gamma)
the most magnetically complex region. This region has shown some
small growth over the last 24 hours, as it moves towards the
western limb. AR4280 (S08E27, beta) and AR4281 (S14W73, beta)
have also shown some growth over this period, with all other
active regions stable or in decay. Solar activity for 14-16 Nov
is expected to be at the R1-R2 level due to previous flare activity
from AR4274. Solar proton conditions briefly peaked at the S2
level early on 13-Nov, due to effects from past flare and coronal
mass ejection events. The proton flux has been declining over
the course of 13-Nov as the effects of these events pass. S0
solar proton conditions, with a chance of S1, are expected for
14-16 Nov as these conditions continue to ease. Four CME events
were observed over the UT day 14-Nov, with three events not being
geoeffective. A fourth event, associated with a filament eruption
centred near S24W27 at 13/1648UT was observed in coronagraph
imagery at 13/1838UT. Modelling will be completed once sufficient
coronagraph imagery becomes available. Solar wind speed was elevated
to start the UT day 13-Nov, due to the ongoing effects of the
previous CME arrivals. The wind speed peaked at 999km/s, but
has since been in decline, with values largely between 750km/s
and 670km/s over the last 10 hours. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 22 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -17 to +12 nT. A period of sustained
southward IMF conditions was observed over the interval 12/2336UT
to 13/0144UT. Further decreases in the solar wind speed are expected
over UT day 14-Nov as the effects of the past CMEs continue
to ease. These effects will continue to ease over UT days 15-16 Nov,
but will be offset on 16-Nov by high speed wind stream effects
from a coronal hole currently crossing the solar meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: G1
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 31 55535431
Cocos Island 25 45425431
Darwin 32 55535432
Townsville 29 55435432
Learmonth 32 55435532
Alice Springs 34 55535531
Gingin 28 55435431
Canberra 30 55535421
Kennaook Cape Grim 27 55534421
Hobart 29 55544421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 64 76746431
Casey 51 67546332
Mawson 70 77754443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 43 (Unsettled)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 44 (Unsettled)
Alice Springs 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gingin 102 (Major storm)
Canberra 70 (Active)
Hobart 144 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 61
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 70
Planetary 127 9877 556-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 18 G0-G1
15 Nov 10 G0
16 Nov 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
region over UT day 13-Nov. G3 conditions were observed across
the Antarctic region, and also seen at the planetary level. These
conditions will continue to decline to G0-G1 on 14-Nov, and further
declining to G0 on 15-Nov as the effects of the geomagnetic storm
subside. This may rise to G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions on 16-Nov
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a northern
hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Poor Poor Poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0950UT 11/11, Ended at 1550UT 13/11
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1010UT 11/11, Ended at 0215UT 13/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Nov were
overall degraded due to geomagnetic storming. Ongoing Polar Cap
Absorption (PCA) is still affecting high latitudes. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be normal to fair on 14
and 16-Nov and mostly normal on 15-Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Nov were depressed by 20-45%, particularly
in the southern regions. Spread-F was observed during
local night hours in Hobart, and Sporadic-E was observed in Perth.
MUFs are expected to continue to experience 15-20% depressions
on UT day 14-Nov, and near predicted monthly values over 15-16
Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 577 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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