[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 November 25 issued 2331 UT on 12 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Nov 13 10:31:19 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity R2 chance R3 R2 chance R3 R2 chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar on-disk conditions were observed to be stable
for the day 12-Nov. No new significant flares were observed,
and R0 conditions were observed throughout the UT day. Seven
named sunspot regions can be seen on the solar disk, with AR4274
(N25W51, Beta-Gamma-Delta) being the largest and most magnetically
complex. This spot appeared mostly stable over the previous UT
day. Active region AR4280 (S08E40, Beta) exhibited growth, with
the development of trailer spots. All other spots were stable
or in decay. Solar activity for UT Nov-13 to Nov-15 is expected
to be at the R2 level, with a chance of R3, given the ongoing
activity associated with AR4274. Solar proton conditions peaked
at the S3 level during UT day Nov-12, with a peak flux of 1460
pfu seen in the >10MeV energy band proton flux at 12/0210UT.
This rise coincided with the arrival of two previously modelled
coronal mass ejections. This solar proton flux is now in decline,
with S1 solar proton conditions expected for UT 13-Nov, declining
to S0-S1 conditions on Nov-14, and to S0 conditions for Nov-15.
No new CMEs were observed over the UT day Nov-12. The solar wind
was disturbed over the day, due to the arrival of three CMEs
at 11/2220UT, 11/2331UT and 12/1852UT. The maximum solar wind
speed was 969km/h, but was highly variable, as solar wind speed
measurement readings from ACE and DSCOVR were affected by the
CMEs. The magnetic field strength peaked at a Bt of 63nT at 12/0035UT,
with a peak southward polarisation Bz of -55nt, observed at 11/2357UT.
This solar wind speed is expected to stabilise and decline over
UT Nov-13, trending towards to background conditions on 14-15
Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: G3
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 77 77575454
Cocos Island 65 77465453
Darwin 92 78575455
Townsville 130 78596464
Learmonth 115 88576565
Alice Springs 78 77575553
Gingin 100 88575453
Canberra 73 77574453
Kennaook Cape Grim 87 77584454
Hobart 112 77595463
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 123 88585663
Casey 111 87676475
Mawson 144 97876564
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 122 (Severe storm)
Townsville 138 (Severe storm)
Learmonth 140 (Severe storm)
Alice Springs 146 (Severe storm)
Gingin NA
Canberra 193 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 113
Planetary 144
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 2322 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 35 G2-G3
14 Nov 18 G0-G1
15 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 92 was issued on 11 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. G3 magnetic conditions were observed
on UT day 12-Nov in the Australian region, following the arrival
of three CMEs across the UT day. Several stations across Australia
reached the G4 levels, with isolated G5 conditions reported in
both Townsville and Hobart. Geomagnetic conditions peaked at
the G4-G5 levels in the Antarctic region, and reached G4 at the
planetary scale. G2-G3 conditions are expected for UT day Nov-13,
as the effects of the geomagnetic storm wane, with G0-G1 conditions
expected for Nov-14, declining to G0 conditions on Nov-15.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Fair Poor Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1115UT 10/11, Ended at 0155UT 11/11
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 11 2025 0950UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 11 2025 1010UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-Nov were
overall degraded due to geomagnetic storming, although sporadic
regions of the globe did observe significant enhancements. Scintillation
events were common over the day. Polar cap absorption (PCA) affected
high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to begin recovering on UT day 13-Nov, although PCA affecting
high latitudes is still expected to persist. Conditions are likely
to be normal over 14-15 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 75 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 80 About 15% below predicted monthly values
15 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 107 was
issued on 10 November and is current for 11-13 Nov. ASWFC SWF
HF Communications Warning 108 was issued on 11 November and is
current for 11-13 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the
Australian region on UT day 12-Nov were depressed by up to 25%.
Spread-F during was observed during local night hours in Hobart,
but was minimal elsewhere across the Australian region. Sporadic-E
dominated observations during local night hours across most Australian
sites. Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) is ongoing, and currently affecting
high latitudes. MUFs are expected to continue to experience 20%
depressions on UT day 13-Nov with additional PCA expected, before
conditions improve from 13-Nov and trend towards predicted monthly
values thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 34600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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