[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 November 25 issued 2335 UT on 11 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Nov 12 10:35:20 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0809UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X5.1 1004UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Nov was R3, with an X5.1
class solar flare by AR4274 (N25W40, beta-gamma-delta), peaking
at 11/1004UT. This flare produced a coronal mass ejection, first
observed at 11/1030UT. AR4274 is the largest and most magnetically
complex region of seven numbered sunspot regions currently visible
on the solar disk. AR4274 has shown some mild growth in both
the main spot as well as the smaller leader spots. AR4277 (S07E00,
beta) and 4280 (S08E51, beta) have also shown some mild growth
over the past day. A new region has developed near S15W45, with
an apparent beta polarity. All other regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R2 to R3 over 12-14
Nov.
Solar radiation storm conditions reached S2, with conditions
peaking at 11/1030UT following the X5.1 solar flare. This rise
was seen across all energy bands, and is currently at S1. Conditions
are expected to be S1-S2 for UT day 12 Nov, with further proton
events possible due to the arrival of several CMEs over the day.
The previously mentioned CME from AR4274 was first observed at
11/1030UT, and modelling is consistent with a geoeffective impact
from 12/2100 UT +/- 12 hours. A second smaller CME can be seen
in STEREO-A coming from a C class flare shortly after the X5
flare. This CME will likely form part of the previous geoeffective
impact.
The solar wind speed was on a slow declining trend towards
background levels over UT day 11-Nov, with wind speeds mostly
between 400-480 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was stable with a maximum of 7nT, and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) between +3 to -3nT. The solar wind environment
is likely to become disturbed over the next 24 hours due to three
anticipated CME arrivals, started approximately from 12/0230UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12210103
Cocos Island 3 01120003
Darwin 4 11211103
Townsville 3 02110103
Learmonth 5 12220103
Alice Springs 2 02110102
Gingin 3 11110103
Canberra 3 12210002
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12220003
Hobart 4 12210003
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 12340002
Casey 12 24231214
Mawson 12 34322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 3212 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 90 G4, chance G5
13 Nov 40 G2-G3
14 Nov 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 92 was issued on 11 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 11-Nov.
Due to 3 CME impacts mostly G4 geomagnetic storm conditions are
expected on UT day 12-Nov, there may be a chance for G5 towards
the end of the day after the third impact. Storm conditions will
continue over 13-Nov trending to G2-G3 levels. Conditions are
expected to ease by 14-Nov, with G0-G1 geomagnetic storm conditions
possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1115UT 10/11, Ended at 0155UT 11/11
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 11 2025 0950UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 11 2025 1010UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 11-Nov were
mostly normal with mild degradations across the globe during
the UT day. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to become
degraded on UT day 12-Nov due to the anticipated arrival of several
CMEs on this day. Conditions are expected to still be degraded
over 13-14 Nov, with an improvement towards the end of the period.
Equatorial and high latitude scintillation is possible. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
13 Nov 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 107 was
issued on 10 November and is current for 11-13 Nov. ASWFC SWF
HF Communications Warning 108 was issued on 11 November and is
current for 11-13 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the
Australian region on UT day 11-Nov were mostly near predicted
values to 15% depressed. Sporadic-E was observed Townsville,
Perth, Hobart and Brisbane during local night hours.
On UT day 12-Nov MUFs are expected to initially become depressed by 20%
shortly after the onset of an anticipated geomagnetic storm.
Depressions are expected to reach 40-50% by the end of the UT
day. Depressions of 20-40% are expected to last over 13-14 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 82400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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