[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 November 25 issued 2347 UT on 10 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Nov 11 10:47:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.2 0919UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1958UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 182/135 182/135 182/135
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Nov was at the R3 level,
with an X1.2 flare observed at 10/0919UT, produced by AR4274
(N25W25, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4274 remains the
largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This
region has developed slightly. AR4280 (S08E67, beta) is new on
disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 11-13 Nov.
S1 solar radiation conditions were observed on UT day 10-Nov.
S0-S1 solar proton conditions are expected over 11-13 Nov. A
geoeffective CME was observed at 10/0936UT, on both LASCO and
STEREO-A imagery. This is considered to be associated with the
X1.2 flare from AR4274. Modelling anticipates this CME will arrive
shortly after a geoeffective CME first observed on 9-Nov. These
CMEs will arrive beginning at 12/0200UT +/- 12 hours. The solar
wind speed on UT day 10-Nov varied, mostly ranging from 477 to
592 km/s and is currently near 469 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +7 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to generally decline on 11-Nov. The solar wind speed
is expected to increase in response to two CMEs forecast to arrive
early on 12-Oct. The solar wind speed will remain elevated on
13-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22223332
Cocos Island 11 22213432
Darwin 12 32223333
Townsville 13 22224432
Learmonth 12 32224332
Alice Springs 9 22223322
Gingin 11 32223332
Canberra 10 23223322
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 23224332
Hobart 12 23233332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 17 23234531
Casey 37 46643434
Mawson 29 44334436
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Hobart 77 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2222 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 38 G3
12 Nov 80 G3-G4
13 Nov 30 G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 90 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 10-Nov. G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G3 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 11-Nov, increasing to G3-G4 on 12-Oct.
This is due to the anticipated arrival of two Earth-directed
CMEs first observed on the 09-Nov & 10-Nov. These are expected
to arrive in short succession, generating combined geomagnetic
effects. Conditions are expected to decline to G2 on 13-Oct,
as CME effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 10 11 2025 1115UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 Nov Poor Poor Poor
13 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Nov were
normal. Fair to Poor HF conditions are expected over 12-13 Nov,
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
13 Nov 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 107 was
issued on 10 November and is current for 11-13 Nov. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Northern Australian region on UT day
10-Nov were up to 30% enhanced during local night. MUFs in the
Southern Australian region were up to 15% enhanced. Spread F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values on 11-Nov. MUFs over 12-13
Nov are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed,
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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