[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 November 25 issued 2331 UT on 09 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Nov 10 10:31:37 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.7 0735UT probable all Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Nov was at the R3 level,
with an X1.7 flare observed at 09/0735UT, produced by AR4274
(N25W13, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4274 remains the
largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This
region has shown redistribution of its intermediate spots over
the UT day. AR4277 (S05E27, beta) has exhibited mild, intermediate
spot development over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R2, chance R3 levels over 10-12 Nov. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 09-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 10-12 Nov. A geoeffective CME was observed at 09/0738UT,
on both LASCO and STEREO-A imagery. This is considered to be
associated with the X1.7 flare from AR4274. Modelling anticipates
this CME will arrive at 11/1700UT +/- 12 hours. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Nov
declined, mostly ranging from 453 to 624 km/s and is currently
near 537 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -6 to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to generally
decline on 10-Nov as CME effects abate. The solar wind speed
is expected to increase over 11-12 Nov due to the anticipated
arrival of an Earth-directed CME first observed on the 09-Nov
and another, weak glancing CME first observed on the 07-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22221113
Cocos Island 4 12211112
Darwin 6 22211113
Townsville 5 21211113
Learmonth 6 21321212
Alice Springs 5 21221112
Gingin 7 21321113
Canberra 5 12220113
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22320103
Hobart 7 22320113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 32210002
Casey 22 55531113
Mawson 16 23424314
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 36 6554 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 7 G0
11 Nov 38 G3, chance G4
12 Nov 31 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 88 was issued on 9 November
and is current for 11-12 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 09-Nov. G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 10-Nov. G3, chance G4 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 11-Nov, declining to G1-G2 on 12-Nov.
This is due to the anticipated arrival of an Earth-directed CME
first observed on the 09-Nov and another, weak glancing CME first
observed on the 07-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
12 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 09-Nov were
mostly normal, with fair conditions observed in the high latitude
regions. Normal HF conditions are expected on the 10-Nov. Fair
to poor HF conditions are expected over 11-12 Nov, due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 104 was issued on
8 November and is current for 8-10 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Northern Australian region on UT day 09-Nov were
up to 40% enhanced. MUFs in the Southern Australian region were
up to 15% depressed. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced on the 10-Nov. MUFs over 11-12 Nov are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed, due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 627 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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