[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Nov 9 10:30:53 AEDT 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 172/126


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   172/126            170/124            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Nov was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently six 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three 
unnumbered regions. AR4274 (N25W01, beta-gamma-delta) remains 
the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk 
and is now crossing the central meridian. This region has shown 
redistribution of its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR4277 
(S05E39, beta) has exhibited spot growth over the 24-hour period. 
An unnumbered region recently appeared near S12W03 (beta) and 
has shown mild spot growth. A second unnumbered region appeared 
near N22E20 (beta) and has also shown mild growth. A third unnumbered 
region recently rotated over the eastern limb near S12E70 (alpha) 
and is stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or 
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 
09-11 Nov. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 
08-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 09-11 Nov. 
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed 
on UT day 08-Nov mildly declined, ranging from 590 to 670 km/s 
and is currently near 595 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was -9 to +5 nT. A period of sustained 
southward IMF conditions was observed over the interval 07/2356UT 
to 08/0900UT. The solar wind speed is expected to generally decline 
over 09-11 Nov as CME effects abate, though a mild increase is 
possible on 11-Nov due to the potential weak glancing arrival 
of a CME first observed on 07-Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   43434312
      Cocos Island        12   33324311
      Darwin              17   43433323
      Townsville          16   44433311
      Learmonth           18   43434323
      Alice Springs       15   43433312
      Gingin              17   43334323
      Canberra            17   44433312
      Kennaook Cape Grim  21   44534312
      Hobart              21   44534312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    37   44745322
      Casey               19   54333323
      Mawson              45   66654342

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              18   (Quiet)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              67   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             49                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             32   5554 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    16    G0, chance of G1
10 Nov    12    G0
11 Nov    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 08-Nov, with isolated periods of G1 observed 
at Hobart and Kennaook Cape Grim. Mostly G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period 
of G3 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 09-11 Nov, with a chance of G1 on 09-Nov due 
to ongoing CME and coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 08-Nov were 
mostly normal. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 09-Nov, 
tending to mostly normal over 10-11 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are 
possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      104
Nov      89
Dec      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 104 was issued on 
8 November and is current for 8-10 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 08-Nov were near predicted 
monthly values to 15% enhanced. MUFs are 20% depressed after 
local dawn in southern Australian regions. Sporadic E was observed 
at Townsville during local night hours. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 09-11 Nov. 
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 737 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   277000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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