[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Nov 9 10:30:53 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 172/126 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Nov was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three
unnumbered regions. AR4274 (N25W01, beta-gamma-delta) remains
the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk
and is now crossing the central meridian. This region has shown
redistribution of its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR4277
(S05E39, beta) has exhibited spot growth over the 24-hour period.
An unnumbered region recently appeared near S12W03 (beta) and
has shown mild spot growth. A second unnumbered region appeared
near N22E20 (beta) and has also shown mild growth. A third unnumbered
region recently rotated over the eastern limb near S12E70 (alpha)
and is stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over
09-11 Nov. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day
08-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 09-11 Nov.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 08-Nov mildly declined, ranging from 590 to 670 km/s
and is currently near 595 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -9 to +5 nT. A period of sustained
southward IMF conditions was observed over the interval 07/2356UT
to 08/0900UT. The solar wind speed is expected to generally decline
over 09-11 Nov as CME effects abate, though a mild increase is
possible on 11-Nov due to the potential weak glancing arrival
of a CME first observed on 07-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 17 43434312
Cocos Island 12 33324311
Darwin 17 43433323
Townsville 16 44433311
Learmonth 18 43434323
Alice Springs 15 43433312
Gingin 17 43334323
Canberra 17 44433312
Kennaook Cape Grim 21 44534312
Hobart 21 44534312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 37 44745322
Casey 19 54333323
Mawson 45 66654342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 49
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 32 5554 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 16 G0, chance of G1
10 Nov 12 G0
11 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Nov, with isolated periods of G1 observed
at Hobart and Kennaook Cape Grim. Mostly G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 09-11 Nov, with a chance of G1 on 09-Nov due
to ongoing CME and coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 08-Nov were
mostly normal. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 09-Nov,
tending to mostly normal over 10-11 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 104 was issued on
8 November and is current for 8-10 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 08-Nov were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. MUFs are 20% depressed after
local dawn in southern Australian regions. Sporadic E was observed
at Townsville during local night hours. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 09-11 Nov.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 737 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 277000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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