[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 07 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Nov 8 10:30:59 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0716UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Nov was at the R1 level
due to an M1.7 flare at 07/0716UT produced by AR4274 (N26E14,
beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR4274 is the largest and
most magnetically complex region on the disk and has exhibited
spot growth over the UT day. AR4276 (S15E53, beta-gamma) has
shown growth in its leader spots. AR4277 (S05E53, beta) has exhibited
spot development over the 24-hour period. AR4275 (N07E25, beta-gamma)
has shown mild spot growth. Newly numbered AR4278 (N11E46, beta)
has increased in overall spot count, though its leading spot
has decayed. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over
08-10 Nov. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day
07-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 08-10 Nov.
An east-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 07/0736UT. This CME is considered to be associated
with the aforementioned M1.7 flare from AR4274. Modelling indicates
this CME may contain a weak Earth-directed component, but the
majority of its material is not significantly Earth-directed.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 07-Nov initially increased due to a CME arrival
at 07/0449UT, following which the solar wind has been declining.
The solar wind ranged from 595 to 850 km/s and is currently near
655 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 18 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -16 to +17 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated over 08-10 Nov due to the combined effects of CME arrivals
and coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a northern
hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 22 44444224
Cocos Island 15 34433222
Darwin 31 44544226
Townsville 24 44544224
Learmonth 32 45545225
Alice Springs 24 44544124
Gingin 26 44444335
Canberra 20 44443224
Kennaook Cape Grim 22 44444224
Hobart 22 44444224
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 29 45454433
Casey 72 57863334
Mawson 68 56673473
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 19 (Quiet)
Learmonth 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 97 (Minor storm)
Canberra 86 (Minor storm)
Hobart 116 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 46
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 31
Planetary 43 5763 2345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 30 G1-G2
09 Nov 16 G0, chance of G1
10 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 86 was issued on 6 November
and is current for 6-8 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 07-Nov, though local periods
of G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed at several sites.
Bureau magnetometer data observed a weak sudden impulse at 07/0516UT,
confirming the arrival of a CME at Earth. The second expected
CME arrival has yet to eventuate. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed at the planetary level. Mostly G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G4 observed at Casey. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 08-Nov due to ongoing CME and coronal hole effects. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 09-10 Nov, with a chance of G1 on
09-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 07-Nov were
mostly normal. Fair to poor conditions are expected on 08-Nov,
tending to normal to fair over 09-10 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 102 was
issued on 6 November and is current for 6-8 Nov. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 07-Nov
were near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. MUFs are
20% depressed after local dawn in southern Australian regions.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
depressed on 08-Nov, returning to near predicted monthly values
over 09-10 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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