[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Nov 7 10:30:53 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8.6 05/2207UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 0431UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Nov was at the R1 level
due to an M1.1 flare at 06/0431UT. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR4274 (N25E27, beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest,
most flare active and most magnetically complex region on the
solar disk. This region also showed spot development over the
UT day. Newly numbered region AR4276 (S15E66, beta) was responsible
for an X1.1 flare on 04-Nov and was responsible for today's M1.1
flare. An unnumbered region is visible at N12E65 with alpha magnetic
complexity. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over
07-09 Nov. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day
06-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 07-09 Nov.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 06-Nov. A north east directed,
partial halo CME observed on 05-Nov has been analysed and is
expected to impact Earth on 07-Nov at 1700UT +/- 9 hours. The
solar wind speed on UT day 05-Nov increased, ranging from 365
to 680 km/s and is currently near 590 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 24 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -17 to +16 nT. A period of sustained
significant southward IMF conditions was observed over the intervals
06/0000UT to 06/0520UT. Enhanced solar wind and IMF conditions
are due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects combined
with possible glancing CME impacts from a series of CMEs observed
on 04-Nov. IMF conditions largely improved over the day. The
solar wind speed is expected to increase on 07-Nov due to two
anticipated impacts from CMEs first observed on 05-Nov. The wind
speed is expected to be elevated over 08-09 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: G1
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 19 34531333
Cocos Island 16 33531332
Darwin 19 34531234
Townsville 19 34532333
Learmonth 19 34532333
Alice Springs 18 34521333
Gingin 21 43532433
Canberra 15 33531223
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 34531323
Hobart 19 34532333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 27 45543343
Casey 38 35753333
Mawson 37 55533455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 88 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 58
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 28 4342 2256
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 80 G3-G4
08 Nov 30 G1, chance of G2
09 Nov 20 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 86 was issued on 6 November
and is current for 6-8 Nov. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
on UT day 06-Nov in the Australian region. G3 conditions were
observed at the planetary level. Mostly G1 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with a period of G3 conditions observed
at Casey. G3-G4 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 07-Nov
due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects combined
with two anticipated impacts from CMEs first observed on 05-Nov.
G1 conditions, with a chance of G2 and G0 conditions, with a
chance of G1 are expected on 08 and 09-Nov respectively due to
ongoing effects from the high speed wind stream and CME impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Poor Poor Poor
08 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 06-Nov were
fair to poor. Stronger degradations were observed in the southern
hemisphere and conditions grew worse over the UT day. Fair to
poor conditions are expected on 07-08 Nov, with a slow recovery
towards normal conditions on 09-Nov due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 70 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 60 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 101 was issued on
5 November and is current for 5-7 Nov. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 103 was issued on 6 November and is current for 7 Nov
only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Nov were
near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed during local night
in the northern Australian region. MUFs were depressed throughout
06-Nov in the southern Australian region, with worse depressions
observed during local night. Spread F was observed at Perth and
Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane
and Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to depressed by up to 15% on 07-Nov,
and depressed by up to 25% on 08-Nov before recovering towards
monthly predicted values on 08-Nov. Expected depressions are
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 32700 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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