[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 05 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Nov 6 10:30:53 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.4 1119UT probable lower European
M8.6 2207UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Nov was at the R2 level
due to an M7.4 flare at 05/1119UT and an M8.6 flare at 05/2207UT.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR4274 (N25E41, beta-gamma-delta)
is by far the largest and most magnetically complex region on
the solar disk. This region was responsible for both of the R2
flares over the UT day and showed development. Two unnumbered
regions have recently rotated onto the solar disk. A small region
with alpha magnetic complexity is visible at around N11E75. A
larger and more magnetically complex region is visible at around
S12E75 and is likely responsible for the X1.1 flare on 04-Nov.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 06-08 Nov. S0
solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 05-Nov. S0 solar
proton conditions are expected over 06-08 Nov. A partial halo
CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 05/1100UT, associated
with the M7.4 flare at 05/1119UT. An eruption on the disk is
visible in SDO, H-Alpha and GOES SUVI imagery from 05/1112UT
at around N25E47. Modelling indicates this CME is geoeffective,
with an estimated arrival time of 07/0200UT +/- 9 hours. Radio
spectra data indicates there is a CME associated with the M8.6
flare at 05/2207UT. An eruption on the disk is visible in SDO,
H-Alpha and GOES SUVI imagery from 05/2200UT at around N31E42.
This CME is visible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 05/2238UT,
however not enough imagery is yet available for a full analysis.
Analysis will be performed when more coronagraph imagery becomes
available. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Nov increased, ranging
from 340 to 440 km/s and is currently near 420 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -17 to +8
nT. Two periods of sustained significant southward IMF conditions
was observed over the intervals 05/0000UT to 05/1000UT and 05/1530UT
to the time of writing. The solar wind speed is expected to further
increase over 06-Nov due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. An anticipated CME impact at the beginning of
07-Nov is expected to produce a further increase in solar wind
speed. The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on 08-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 22321334
Cocos Island 9 22211234
Darwin 10 21321234
Townsville 11 22321234
Learmonth 12 22322334
Alice Springs 10 21321333
Gingin 15 32322344
Canberra 9 21321233
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 21332343
Hobart 14 22422343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 33 24644454
Casey 15 33321235
Mawson 38 44433447
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3323 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 40 G2, chance of G3
07 Nov 60 G3
08 Nov 25 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 05-Nov
in the Australian region. G1 conditions were observed at the
planetary level. G1 conditions were observed at Casey, G2 conditions
at Macquarie Island and G3 conditions were observed at Mawson.
G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 06-Nov, with a chance
of G3 due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
combined with a possible early arrival of an anticipated CME.
G3 conditions are expected on 07-Nov due to the anticipated arrival
of a partial halo CME first observed on 05-Nov. G1 conditions
are expected on 08-Nov due to ongoing effects from the previous
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
07 Nov Poor Poor Poor
08 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 05-Nov were
mostly normal, with degradations observed in the southern hemisphere
at the start of the UT day. Normal to fair conditions are expected
on 06-Nov, declining to fair to poor conditions over 07-08 Nov
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 60 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 65 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 101 was issued on
5 November and is current for 5-7 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 05-Nov were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region, with 15% enhancements observed in the
northern Australian region. Sporadic E was observed at Perth
during local night hours, sporadic E also blocked out HF frequencies
at 05/1600UT at Townsville. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on 06-Nov. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to depressed by 20% over 07-08 Nov due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 79500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list