[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Nov 5 10:30:52 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.5 0148UT possible lower West Pacific
X1.8 1734UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
X1.1 2201UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Nov was at the R3 level
due to two X-class flares, the largest of which was an X1.8 flare
at 04/1734UT produced by AR4274 (N24E55, beta-gamma). A second
X-class flare was observed at 04/2201UT, produced by an active
region beyond the eastern limb at latitude S11. There are currently
four numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4274
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk
and has exhibited spot growth over the UT day. AR4273 (S11E02,
beta-gamma) showed mild decay in its leading spots. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 05-07 Nov. S0 solar proton
conditions were observed on UT day 04-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 05-07 Nov. A northeast-directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 04/1736UT. This
CME is considered to be associated with the aforementioned X1.8
flare from AR4274. Modelling indicates this CME does not contain
a significant Earth-directed component. Two additional CMEs were
observed to the northeast at 04/0024UT and 04/0125UT, neither
of which are considered significantly geoeffective. No other
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 04-Nov declined, ranging from 360 to 430 km/s and is
currently near 385 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -6 to +6 nT. A period of sustained mild southward
IMF conditions was observed over the interval 04/0906-1141UT.
The solar wind speed may mildly increase on 05-Nov due to a possible
weak glancing CME arrival. The solar wind speed is expected to
increase over 06-07 Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21122111
Cocos Island 4 12122110
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 5 21122112
Learmonth 5 21122212
Alice Springs 4 21112112
Gingin 6 21122222
Canberra 4 12122111
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 22123221
Hobart 7 22123221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 23244220
Casey 16 45332222
Mawson 17 43333432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20 3344 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 12 G0
06 Nov 18 G0, chance of G1
07 Nov 24 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 04-Nov
in the Australian region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 05-06 Nov, with a chance of G1 on 06-Nov, increasing to
G1 on 07-Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 04-Nov were
normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected on 05-Nov, then
normal to fair over 06-07 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 100 was issued on
3 November and is current for 3-5 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 04-Nov were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 04-05 Nov, and
near predicted monthly values on 07-Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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